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COVID-19 and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns: Impact and Transmission

Author

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  • Lorenzo Bretscher
  • Alex Hsu
  • Peter Simasek
  • Andrea Tamoni
  • Nikolai Roussanov

Abstract

Using the first reported case of COVID-19 in a given U.S. county as the event day, we find that firms headquartered in an affected county experience, on average, a 27-bps lower return in the 10-day post-event window. This negative effect nearly doubles in magnitude for firms in counties with a higher infection rate (−50 bps). We test a number of transmission channels. Firms belonging to labor-intensive industries and those located in counties with a large mobility decline have worse stock performance. Firms sensitive to COVID-19-induced uncertainty also exhibit more negative returns. Finally, more negative stock returns are associated with downward revisions in earnings forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Peter Simasek & Andrea Tamoni & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "COVID-19 and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns: Impact and Transmission," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 705-741.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:10:y::i:4:p:705-741.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/raaa017
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lars Peter Hansen, 0. "Repercussions of Pandemics on Markets and Policy," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 569-573.
    2. Borri, Nicola & Giorgio, Giorgio di, 2022. "Systemic risk and the COVID challenge in the european banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Laeven, Luc, 2022. "Pandemics, intermediate goods, and corporate valuation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Zhang, Haozhe, 2022. "Equity clusters through the lens of realized semicorrelations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    5. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, COVID-19 lockdown, and firm-level volatility: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Ducret, Romain, 2021. "Investors' perception of business group membership during an economic crisis : Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," FSES Working Papers 524, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    7. John, Kose & Li, Jingrui, 2021. "COVID-19, volatility dynamics, and sentiment trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Matthew Spiegel & Heather Tookes, 2021. "Business Restrictions and COVID-19 Fatalities [The immediate effect of COVID-19 policies on social distancing behavior in the United States]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5266-5308.
    9. Bae, Kee-Hong & El Ghoul, Sadok & Gong, Zhaoran (Jason) & Guedhami, Omrane, 2021. "Does CSR matter in times of crisis? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Dusko Ursic & Andrej Smogavc Cestar, 2022. "Crisis Management and CSR in Slovenian Companies: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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