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An Annual Index of U. S. Industrial Production, 1790–1915

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  • Joseph H. Davis

Abstract

As a remedy for the notorious deficiency of pre-Civil War U. S. macroeconomic data, this study introduces an annual index of American industrial production consistently defined from 1790 until World War I. The index incorporates 43 quantity-based annual series (most entirely new) in the manufacturing and mining industries in a manner similar to the Federal Reserve Board's monthly industrial production index. The index changes our view of the growth and volatility of the U. S. economy before World War I. A direct implication of the index is that antebellum-postbellum differences in industrial volatility are statistically indistinguishable. The index also demonstrates that the pernicious deflationary depressions that purportedly followed the financial panics in 1837 and 1873 were actually rather mild recessions when expressed in real output.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph H. Davis, 2004. "An Annual Index of U. S. Industrial Production, 1790–1915," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1177-1215.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:119:y:2004:i:4:p:1177-1215.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1162/0033553042476143
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    Cited by:

    1. Rui Manuel Pereira, Alfredo Marvao Pereira and William J. Hausman, 2017. "Railroad Infrastructure Investments and Economic Development in the Antebellum United States," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Hogan, Thomas L., 2015. "Has the Fed improved U.S. economic performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 257-266.
    3. Seán Kenny & Jason Lennard & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2023. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 283-304, February.
    4. Esposito, Federico, 2020. "Estimating the welfare costs of autarky: A sufficient statistics approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Seán Kenny & Jason Lennard & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2020. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800-1921," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _185, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Ritschl, Albrecht & Uebele, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Is deflation costly after all? The perils of erroneous historical classifications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 614-628, August.
    8. Ian Keay, 2019. "Protection for maturing industries: Evidence from Canadian trade patterns and trade policy, 1870–1913," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 1464-1496, November.
    9. Rapone, Tancredi, 2022. "Measuring human capital in the united states using copyright title pages, 1790-1870," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113448, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data," KOF Working papers 16-421, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Nicholas A. Curott & Tyler A. Watts, 2018. "A Monetary Explanation for the Recession of 1797," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 381-399, June.
    12. Ferrie, Joseph & Rolf, Karen, 2011. "Socioeconomic status in childhood and health after age 70: A new longitudinal analysis for the U.S., 1895–2005," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 445-460.
    13. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    14. Kupiec, Paul H. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2013. "Bank failures and the cost of systemic risk: Evidence from 1900 to 1930," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-307.
    15. Hogan, Thomas L. & White, Lawrence H., 2021. "Hayek, Cassel, and the origins of the great depression," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 241-251.
    16. Jeffrey Miron, 2013. "Should Policy Attempt to Avoid Financial Crises?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 33(3), pages 391-399, Fall.
    17. Cantillo, Miguel, 2016. "Villains or Heroes? Private Banks and Railroads after the Sherman Act," MPRA Paper 79354, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Christopher Hoag, 2019. "Liquidity and Borrowing from a Lender of Last Resort during the Crisis of 1884," Working Papers 1901, Trinity College, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2019.
    19. Catherine L. McDevitt & James R. Irwin, 2017. "Women's empowerment and economic growth: Albany, NY, 1760-1860," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 2041-2052.
    20. Hao-Chang Yang & Ferry Syarifuddin & Chun-Ping Chang & Hai-Jie Wang, 2022. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Futures Fluctuations on Macroeconomy: Evidence from Ten Trading Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(8), pages 2300-2313, June.
    21. Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "The Panic of 1907," Working Papers (Old Series) 1228, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    22. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
    23. Stefan Gerlach & Rebecca Stuart, 2021. "Commodity Prices and Global Inflation, 1851-1913," IRENE Working Papers 21-07, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    24. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of corporate default crisis: A long-term perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 297-310.
    25. Gustavo Freire & Marcelo Resende, 2020. "Conditional growth volatility and sectoral comovement in U.S. industrial production, 1828–1915," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 3063-3084, December.

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