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A Sequential Decision Model to Determine Optimal Farm-Level Grain Marketing Policies

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  • Berg, Ernst

Abstract

This paper deals with the development of models to support postharvest grain-marketing decisions. These multi-stage decision models compute optimal closed-loop sales policies based on subjective assessments of the probability distributions of future prices. The first approach assumes that the decision maker is risk indifferent. Later on the model is expanded in order to maximize expected utility to capture risk aversion as well. The impacts of different degrees of risk aversion on the optimal policy are analyzed and conclusions are drawn with respect to the model application in practical decision making. Copyright 1987 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Berg, Ernst, 1987. "A Sequential Decision Model to Determine Optimal Farm-Level Grain Marketing Policies," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 14(1), pages 91-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:14:y:1987:i:1:p:91-116
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomsen, V., 1999. "Möglichkeiten einer Quantifizierung des Wertes von Marktinformation für landwirtschaftliche Unternehmen," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 35.
    2. Palatnik, Ruslana Rachel & Freer, Mikhail & Levin, Mark & Golberg, Alexander & Zilberman, David, 2023. "Algae-Based Two-Stage Supply Chain with Co-Products," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. Elisabeth Vollmer & Daniel Hermann & Oliver Musshoff, 2019. "The disposition effect in farmers’ selling behavior: an experimental investigation," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(2), pages 177-189, March.
    4. Schulze, Birgit, 2011. "Dynamic Markets – Dynamic Relationships: The Example of Grain Marketing in Germany," 2011 International European Forum, February 14-18, 2011, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 122001, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    5. Lai, Jing-Yi & Myers, Robert J. & Hanson, Steven D., 2003. "Optimal On-Farm Grain Storage by Risk-Averse Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Lai, Jing-Yi & Myers, Robert J. & Hanson, Steven D., 2001. "Optimal Post-Harvest Grains Storage By Risk Averse Farmers," Staff Paper Series 11739, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    7. Potts, Franziska & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2018. "Getreidevermarktung In Norddeutschland," 58th Annual Conference, Kiel, Germany, September 12-14, 2018 275863, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    8. Jens‐Peter Loy & Thore Holm & Carsten Steinhagen & Thomas Glauben, 2015. "Seasonal Quality Premiums for Wheat: A Case Study for Northern Germany," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 63-75, January.
    9. Loy, Jens-Peter & Pieniadz, Agata, 2009. "Optimal Grain Marketing Revisited: A German and Polish Perspective," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51058, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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