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Identification of the age-period-cohort model and the extended chain-ladder model

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Author Info
D. Kuang
B. Nielsen
J. P. Nielsen

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Abstract

We consider the identification problem that arises in the age-period-cohort models as well as in the extended chain-ladder model. We propose a canonical parameterization based on the accelerations of the trends in the three factors. This parameterization is exactly identified and eases interpretation, estimation and forecasting. The canonical parameterization is applied to a class of index sets which have trapezoidal shapes, including various Lexis diagrams and the insurance-reserving triangles. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/biomet/asn026
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Article provided by Oxford University Press for Biometrika Trust in its journal Biometrika.

Volume (Year): 95 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 979-986
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Handle: RePEc:oup:biomet:v:95:y:2008:i:4:p:979-986

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  1. D. Kuang & Bent Nielsen & J. P. Nielsen, 2008. "Forecasting with the age-period-cohort model and the extended chain-ladder model," Economics Papers 2008-W09, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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