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Demand Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Trend and Seasonality: The Case of Meat Demand in the United Kingdom

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  • Iain Fraser
  • Imad A. Moosa

Abstract

If budget shares have stochastic trend or seasonality or both, then demand equations based on the assumption of deterministic trend and deterministic seasonality will be mis-specified. We test this proposition by estimating a Linearized Almost Ideal (LAI) demand system for meat demand in the United Kingdom using Harvey's structural time series methodology. We demonstrate that the model specification allowing for stochastic trend and deterministic seasonality performs best in terms of diagnostic tests and goodness of fit measures. It is also shown that the model with stochastic trend is better at out-of-sample forecasting. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Iain Fraser & Imad A. Moosa, 2002. "Demand Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Trend and Seasonality: The Case of Meat Demand in the United Kingdom," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 83-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:84:y:2002:i:1:p:83-89
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1467-8276.00244
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    Cited by:

    1. Penikas, Henry & Savelyeva, Alina, 2013. "Researching and forecasting aggregated consumers’ perception of imported food: Russia and Brazil case studies (1992–2020)," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 32(4), pages 45-70.
    2. D. Evans & E. Kula & H. Sezer, 2005. "Regional welfare weights for the UK: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 923-937.
    3. Peter BIELIK & Daniela HUPKOVÁ, 2011. "Modelling structural changes in the poultry meat demand - the case of Slovakia," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 57(8), pages 363-369.
    4. Harri, Ardian & Brorsen, B. Wade & Muhammad, Andrew & Anderson, John D., 2010. "Estimating a Demand System with Seasonally Differenced Data," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(2), May.
    5. Mazzocchi, Mario & Lobb, Alexandra E., 2005. "A Latent-Variable Approach to Modelling Multiple and Resurgent Meat Scares in Italy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24509, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Kim, Jae H. & Fraser, Iain & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "Improved interval estimation of long run response from a dynamic linear model: A highest density region approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 2477-2489, August.
    7. D. Hupková & P. Bielik & N. Turčeková, 2009. "Structural changes in the beef meat demand in Slovakia and demand elasticity estimation," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 55(8), pages 361-367.
    8. Kadochnikov, Pavel A. (Кадочников, Павел А.) & Chentsov, Alexander M. (Ченцов, Александр М.) & Knobel, Alexander Yu. (Кнобель, Александр Ю.), 2019. "Assessment of Import Substitution Due to the Trade Embargo in Russia, 2014–2016 [Оценка Масштабов Импортозамещения В России В 2014–2016 Годах]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-33, February.
    9. Stefan Wirsenius & Fredrik Hedenus & Kristina Mohlin, 2011. "Greenhouse gas taxes on animal food products: rationale, tax scheme and climate mitigation effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 159-184, September.
    10. Adhikari, Murali & Paudel, Laxmi & Houston, Jack E. & Paudel, Krishna P. & Bukenya, James O., 2006. "The Impact of Cholesterol Information on Meat Demand: Application of an Updated Cholesterol Index," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 37(2), pages 1-10, July.
    11. Mazzocchi, Mario, 2004. "Food Scares and Demand Recovery Patterns: An Econometric Investigation," 84th Seminar, February 8-11, 2004, Zeist, The Netherlands 24990, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Mario Mazzocchi & Davide Delle Monache & Alexandra Lobb, 2006. "A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(14), pages 1677-1688.
    13. Murali Adhikari & Krishna Paudel & Jack Houstan & James Bukenya, 2007. "Dairy supply response under stochastic trend and seasonality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 887-891.

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