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Estimation and Optimal Control of an Uncertain Production Process

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  • C. Robert Taylor
  • Jean-Paul Chavas

Abstract

Three alternative decision rules for estimation and control of an uncertain production process are examined. One is a certainty equivalence strategy whereby an optimal rate based on current estimates of production parameters is used throughout the planning horizon. A second is updated certainty equivalence, a passively adaptive strategy. Third is an actively adaptive control formulation. Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the passively adaptive strategy outperforms the others. For the cases simulated, the actively adaptive approximation to the information state for a dual control problem is not good enough to establish superiority of this sophisticated strategy for all problems.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Robert Taylor & Jean-Paul Chavas, 1980. "Estimation and Optimal Control of an Uncertain Production Process," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(4), pages 675-680.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:62:y:1980:i:4:p:675-680.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1239765
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    Cited by:

    1. Iordanis Parikoglou & Grigorios Emvalomatis & Fiona Thorne, 2022. "Precision livestock agriculture and productive efficiency: The case of milk recording in Ireland," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 109-120, November.
    2. Gerald F. Ortmann & George F. Patrick & Wesley N. Musser & D. Howard Doster, 1993. "Use of private consultants and other sources of information by large cornbelt farmers," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 391-402.
    3. Antle, John M., 1983. "Production Dynamics, Uncertainty, and Agricultural Decision Analysis," Working Papers 225705, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. John Foltz & Kent Lanclos & Joseph Guenthner & Larry Makus & William Sanchez, 1996. "The market for information and consultants in Idaho agriculture," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 569-581.

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