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The Determinants of Consumption Growth in Austria — Results of a Representative Survey

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Author Info
Juergen Janger () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Claudia Kwapil () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Wolfgang Pointner () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Abstract

In the period from 2001 to 2004, Austrian households' consumption expenditure increased by 0.9% per annum in real terms, thus growing 1.6 percentage points more slowly on average than in the period from 1989 to 2000. Subdued consumption growth is attributable not only to economic stagnation, but also to a higher saving rate than is usual at the current stage of the economic cycle. To explain this unusual consumer behavior, numerous hypotheses have been formulated that go beyond the conventional determinants of consumption. In this study, the hypotheses were tested against the results of a representative survey carried out among Austrian households in August 2004. 36% of respondents said they had cut consumption expenditures in the previous 12 months, while 52% claimed to have kept consumption stable and roughly 12% of those surveyed said they had increased consumption expenditures. Among the motives for lower consumption, respondents most frequently cited perceived price increases, the income situation, a pessimistic income outlook and a trend toward smart shopping, while they considered anticipated cuts in pensions or other public benefits, waiting for prices to drop (withholding consumption) and too cautious economic reforms less relevant and geopolitical uncertainties, mounting public debt and liquidity constraints irrelevant. JEL classification: E21

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Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Monetary Policy and the Economy.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 48-65
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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2005:i:3:b:3

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Keywords: consumption; Austria.;

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  1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1990. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-2), pages 61-156. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert E. Hall, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Deaton, A. & Grosh, M., 1998. "Consumption," Papers 191, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  6. Gerhard Fenz & Martin Spitzer, 2005. "AQM. The Austrian Quarterly Model of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank," Working Papers 104, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  7. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-46, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bayar, A. & McMorrow, K., 1999. "Determinants of Private Consumption," European Economy - Economic Papers 135, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  9. Christopher D Carroll, 1990. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive 371, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Aug 1996.
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  10. Werner Dirschmid & Ernst Glatzer, 2004. "Determinants of the Household Saving Rate in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 25-38, December. [Downloadable!]
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