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Assessing the impact of economic and financial shocks on SME credit quality: a scenario analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Edward I. Altman

    (Max L. Heine Professor, Emeritus, Salomon Center, NYU Stern School of Business)

  • Rafał Sieradzki

    (Cracow University of Economics, College of Economics, Finance and Law, NYU Stern School of Business)

  • Michał Thlon

    (Cracow University of Economics, College of Economics, Finance and Law)

Abstract

We estimate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on credit risk changes on a large sample of SME firms. The Altman Z”-Score model, which has proven to be a powerful and robust bankruptcy prediction model across many industries and countries, is used to assess over 1,000 SMEs from seven Polish industrial sectors. Specifically, we assess the vulnerability of the sampled firms to credit downgrades, including the likelihood of becoming insolvent and filing for bankruptcy, over the expected downturn in the real economy. Based on scenario analysis on individual firm financial data, we analyse rating transitions under multiple potential scenarios, focusing on the deterioration of the SME firms’ profits, and working capital including an increase in current liabilities. We find that the impact on companies from the various rating equivalent groupings are quite diverse and cannot be explained only by the firms’ industrial sector. Of particular importance is the proportion of firms whose credit quality deterioration could result in insolvency. What is perhaps surprising is that the most resilient companies with respect to credit downturns are, apart from the AAA/AA+ and AA/AA-rated, those which initially were assigned to the most risky (CCC) credit rating equivalent class. And, those that were assigned to lower investment grade classes were amongst the least resilient.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward I. Altman & Rafał Sieradzki & Michał Thlon, 2023. "Assessing the impact of economic and financial shocks on SME credit quality: a scenario analysis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(2), pages 89-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:54:y:2023:i:2:p:89-128
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Altman Z”-Scores; bankruptcy prediction; credit risk; bond rating equivalents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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