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Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Koch

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
    IZA Institute of Labor Economics)

  • Lennard Naumann

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
    WZB Berlin Social Science Center)

  • Felix Pretis

    (University of Victoria
    University of Oxford)

  • Nolan Ritter

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Moritz Schwarz

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

Abstract

Policymakers combine many different policy tools to achieve emission reductions. However, there remains substantial uncertainty around which mixes of policies are effective. This uncertainty stems from the predominant focus of ex post policy evaluation on isolating effects of single, known policies. Here we introduce an approach to identify effective policy interventions in the EU road transport sector by detecting treatment effects as structural breaks in CO2 emissions that can potentially occur in any country at any point in time from any number of a priori unknown policies. This search for ‘causes of effects’ within a statistical framework allows us to draw systematic inference on the effectiveness of policy mixes. We detect ten successful policy interventions that reduced emissions between 8% and 26%. The most successful policy mixes combine carbon or fuel taxes with green vehicle incentives and highlight that emissions reductions on a magnitude that matches the EU zero emission targets are possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Koch & Lennard Naumann & Felix Pretis & Nolan Ritter & Moritz Schwarz, 2022. "Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 844-853, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:7:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41560-022-01095-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-022-01095-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S. & Zhang, Philipp, 2023. "Shocks to transition risk," Discussion Papers 04/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Su, Erlei & Liang, Yunpei & Chen, Xiangjun & Wang, Zhaofeng & Ni, Xiaoming & Zou, Quanle & Chen, Haidong & Wei, Jiaqi, 2023. "Relationship between pore structure and mechanical properties of bituminous coal under sub-critical and super-critical CO2 treatment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    3. Talis Tebecis, 2023. "Have climate policies been effective in Austria? A reverse causal analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp346, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Tebecis, Talis, 2023. "Have climate policies been effective in Austria? A reverse causal analysis," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 346, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Anderson, Heather M. & Gao, Jiti & Turnip, Guido & Vahid, Farshid & Wei, Wei, 2023. "Estimating the effect of an EU-ETS type scheme in Australia using a synthetic treatment approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Hössinger, Reinhard & Peer, Stefanie & Juschten, Maria, 2023. "Give citizens a task: An innovative tool to compose policy bundles that reach the climate goal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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