IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mup/actaun/actaun_2012060040327.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulations at Czech poultry market

Author

Listed:
  • Lenka Rumánková

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • T. Maier

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • J. Mach

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • L. Čechura

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • Z. Křístková

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • M. Malý

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • Z. Malá

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • P. Hálová

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

Abstract

This paper defines the possible scenarios of the development of the poultry market in the Czech Republic, in view of the trends in production, consumption and foreign trade. The individual scenarios are based upon the forecasts of selected factors that have a substantial impact on the poultry market and whose changes can be expected in the subsequent years with great likelihood. The article sets out and addresses various scenarios for the period of 2012-2014. The scenarios are based upon the partial equilibrium model of the poultry market, which has been derived on the basis of time series and panel data within the years 1995-2009. The conducted analysis clearly shows that changes in the prices of agricultural producers will have an effect on changes in the production of poultry meat, an increase in VAT through consumer prices will impact the rate of domestic consumption, as well as changes in disposable income. Similarly, a change in the exchange rate will have an effect on the amount of poultry imported into the Czech Republic.

Suggested Citation

  • Lenka Rumánková & T. Maier & J. Mach & L. Čechura & Z. Křístková & M. Malý & Z. Malá & P. Hálová, 2012. "Simulations at Czech poultry market," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 327-334.
    • Handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2012060040327
    DOI: 10.11118/actaun201260040327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201260040327.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201260040327.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11118/actaun201260040327?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
    2. Anthony N. Rezitis & Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos, 2010. "Supply response and price volatility in the Greek broiler market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 25-48.
    3. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    4. Huang, Biing-Wen & Chen, Meng-Gu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Modelling risk in agricultural finance: Application to the poultry industry in Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1472-1487.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony N. Rezitis & Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos, 2010. "Supply response and price volatility in the Greek broiler market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 25-48.
    2. Nanying Wang & Jack E. Houston, 2016. "The Co-Movement between Non-GM and GM Soybean Prices in China: Evidence from Dalian Futures Market (2004-2014)," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 37-47, November.
    3. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
    4. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    5. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2000. "Price And Price Risk Dynamics In Barge And Ocean Freight Markets And The Effects On Commodity Trading," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18934, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Michael S. Haigh & Henry L. Bryant, 2000. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
    7. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    8. Pope, Rulon D. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Just, Richard E., 2011. "Agricultural arbitrage and risk preferences," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 35-43, May.
    9. Hari Sharma Neupane & Chandra Lal Shrestha & Tara Prasad Upadhyaya, 2012. "Modelling Monthly International Tourist Arrivals and Its Risk in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 24(1), pages 28-47, April.
    10. Bermpei, Theodora & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios & Alshalahi, Jebreel, 2023. "Does commodity price uncertainty matter for the cost of credit? Evidence from developing and advanced economies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    11. Hari Sharma Neupane & Chandra Lal Shrestha & Tara Prasad Upadhyaya, 2012. "Modelling Monthly International Tourist Arrivals and Its Risk in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(1), pages 28-47, April.
    12. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    13. Haile, Mekbib G. & Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2019. "Access to information, price expectations and welfare: The role of mobile phone adoption in Ethiopia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 82-92.
    14. David S. Bullock & Philip Garcia & Kie‐Yup Shin, 2005. "Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non‐neutrality," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21, March.
    15. Tristan Le Cotty & Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Moctar Ndiaye & Sophie S. Thoyer, 2021. "Input use and output price risks: the case of maize in Burkina Faso [Utilisation d'intrants et risques de prix : le cas du maïs au Burkina Faso]," Working Papers hal-03252026, HAL.
    16. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2001. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
    17. Hwang, Tsorng-Chyi & Chen, Meng-Gu & Chang, Chia-Lin, 2011. "Price stabilization in the Taiwan hog and broiler industries: Evidence from a STAR approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 213-219.
    18. Gerrit Reher & Bernd Wilfling, 2016. "A nesting framework for Markov-switching GARCH modelling with an application to the German stock market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 411-426, March.
    19. Huang, Shian-Chang, 2011. "Wavelet-based multi-resolution GARCH model for financial spillover effects," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(11), pages 2529-2539.
    20. He, Dequan & Holt, Matthew T., 2004. "Efficiency Of Forest Commodity Futures Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20344, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2012060040327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://mendelu.cz/en/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.