IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mth/jpag88/v12y2022i2p120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Welfare and Unemployment on the Crimes in the United States: Co-integration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mahmoud MOURAD

Abstract

The paper carries out a depth study of the total annual crimes by 100000 people in the United States, considered as the dependent variable, and two explanatory variables that are- welfare expenditure by 100000 people and unemployment rate during the period 1980-1919. The paper is oriented to a specific point- impact the unemployment and welfare variables on the total crimes (violent and property) in the United States of America. Much attention is given to the stationarity analysis and then to the cointegration analysis using the ARDL / Bounds testing Methodology proposed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (PSS). Two long-term equilibrium relationships were identified and an interpretation of the results was performed. Both relationships have been validated and the Error Correction Model (ECM) is built. The results show that the adjustment speeds towards equilibrium are  in the case of Unrestricted intercept and no trend, and  in the case of Unrestricted intercept and trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmoud MOURAD, 2022. "Impact of Welfare and Unemployment on the Crimes in the United States: Co-integration Analysis," Journal of Public Administration and Governance, Macrothink Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 120-120, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:jpag88:v:12:y:2022:i:2:p:120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/jpag/article/download/19957/15446
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/jpag/article/view/19957
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 852, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. George Saridakis, 2004. "Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 203-221, September.
    8. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    9. Baharom, A.H. & Habibullah, M.S. & Royfaizal, R. C, 2008. "Convergence of violent crime in the United States: Time series test of nonlinear," MPRA Paper 11926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chintrakarn, Pandej & Herzer, Dierk, 2012. "More inequality, more crime? A panel cointegration analysis for the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 389-391.
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    13. Marcelo Justus dos Santos & Ana Lúcia Kassouf, 2013. "A cointegration analysis of crime, economic activity, and police performance in São Paulo city," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(10), pages 2087-2109, October.
    14. Habibullah, M.S. & Baharom, A.H., 2008. "Crime and economic conditions in Malaysia: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," MPRA Paper 11910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kuziemko, Ilyana & Levitt, Steven D., 2004. "An empirical analysis of imprisoning drug offenders," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 2043-2066, August.
    16. Jiangli Zhu & Zilian Li, 2017. "Inequality and Crime in China," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 12(2), pages 309-339, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    2. Mitch Kunce, 2022. "The Tenuous Ecological Divorce and Unemployment Link with Suicide: A U.S. Panel Analysis 1968-2020," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-2.
    3. Lin, Yingqian & Tu, Yundong, 2020. "Robust inference for spurious regressions and cointegrations involving processes moderately deviated from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 52-65.
    4. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    5. S. Lardic & V. Mignon, 2002. "Fractional cointegration and term structure of interest rates," THEMA Working Papers 2002-28, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Baillie, R. & Chung, C. & Tieslau, M., 1992. "The Long Memory and Variability of Inflation : A Reappraisal of the Friedman Hypothesis," Other publications TiSEM 49a709f4-608f-43c5-840b-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    8. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    9. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    10. José Angel Roldán Casas & Rafaela Dios-Palomares, 2004. "A Strategy for Testing the Unit Root in AR(1) Model with Intercept. A Monte Carlo Experiment," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/37, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    11. Arielle Beyaert & Juan rez-Castej, 2000. "Switching regime models in the Spanish inter-bank market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 93-112.
    12. Mbodja Mougoué, 1992. "The Term Structure Of Interest Rates As A Cointegrated System: Empirical Evidence From The Eurocurrency Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 285-296, September.
    13. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Vicente Esteve & Juan Sanchis, "undated". "Estimating the substitutability between private and public consumption: the case of Spain, 1960- 2001," Studies on the Spanish Economy 161, FEDEA.
    16. Mara Madaleno & Victor Moutinho, 2021. "Analysis of the New Kuznets Relationship: Considering Emissions of Carbon, Methanol, and Nitrous Oxide Greenhouse Gases—Evidence from EU Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-23, March.
    17. Mitch Kunce, 2023. "Unemployment and Suicide in the United States: The Import of Addressing Cross-Sectional Dependence," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19.
    18. Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2022. "Commodity futures prices pass-through and monetary policy in India: Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    19. Gaowen Wang, 2017. "Modified Unit Root Tests with Nuisance Parameter Free Asymptotic Distributions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 519-538, June.
    20. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:jpag88:v:12:y:2022:i:2:p:120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/jpag .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.