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Exchange Rate Risk Premium in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Ly Dai Hung

    (VNU International School (VNUIS), Vietnam National University; Vietnam Institute of Economics (VIE) and Thang Long Institute of Mathematics and Applied Sciences (TIMAS))

Abstract

This study characterises the exchange rate risk premium in the context of a small open economy with a controlled floating exchange rate regime. The empirical analysis applies the time-varying coefficients Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (TVC-BSVAR) model on data from the Vietnamese economy over a sample period from February 2012 to February 2019. The evidence shows that the risk premium varies over time, and increases with inflation and foreign direct investment capital inflows, but decreases with output growth and credit growth. The TVC-BSVAR model displayed highly accurate forecasting performance, accounting for nearly 94% of risk premium in a case study using the US dollar forward selling contract.

Suggested Citation

  • Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Exchange Rate Risk Premium in Vietnam," Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Malaya & Malaysian Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 301-315, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mjr:journl:v:59:y:2022:i:2:p:301-315
    DOI: 10.22452/MJES.vol59no2.7
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Output-inflation Trade-off in the Presence of Foreign Capital: Evidence for Vietnam," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(2), pages 179-192, December.
    3. Emmanuel Farhi & Matteo Maggiori, 2018. "A Model of the International Monetary System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 295-355.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
    5. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "On time varying risk premia in the foreign exchange market: An econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-18, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; risk premium; vector autoregression; Vietnam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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