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The Vulnerability of Social Security When Fertility is Endogenous

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  • Bas van Groezen
  • Theo Leers
  • Lex Meijdam

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of rumours and changes in life expectancy in an economywith endogenous fertility and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pensions. We show that the endogeneity of fertility makes society vulnerable to both pessimistic beliefs and an increasing life span. On the one hand, rumours that pension benefits decrease appear to be self-fulfilling in the short run. On the other hand, increasing longevity deteriorates the PAYG pension scheme both in the short and in the long run, as the number of children permanently declines.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen in its journal Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics.

Volume (Year): 158 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 715-730

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Handle: RePEc:mhr:jinste:urn:sici:0932-4569(200212)158:4_715:tvossw_2.0.tx_2-7

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Cited by:
  1. Rafael Barrera Gutiérrez, 2011. "El vacío institucional en el modelo de elección racional aplicado a la fecundidad," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(25), pages 223-248, July-Dece.

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