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The Vulnerability of Social Security When Fertility is Endogenous

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Author Info
Bas van Groezen
Theo Leers
Lex Meijdam

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Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of rumours and changes in life expectancy in an economywith endogenous fertility and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pensions. We show that the endogeneity of fertility makes society vulnerable to both pessimistic beliefs and an increasing life span. On the one hand, rumours that pension benefits decrease appear to be self-fulfilling in the short run. On the other hand, increasing longevity deteriorates the PAYG pension scheme both in the short and in the long run, as the number of children permanently declines.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen in its journal Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics.

Volume (Year): 158 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 715-730
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Handle: RePEc:mhr:jinste:urn:sici:0932-4569(200212)158:4_715:tvossw_2.0.tx_2-7

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Related research
Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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