The Vulnerability of Social Security When Fertility is Endogenous
AbstractThis paper analyses the effects of rumours and changes in life expectancy in an economywith endogenous fertility and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pensions. We show that the endogeneity of fertility makes society vulnerable to both pessimistic beliefs and an increasing life span. On the one hand, rumours that pension benefits decrease appear to be self-fulfilling in the short run. On the other hand, increasing longevity deteriorates the PAYG pension scheme both in the short and in the long run, as the number of children permanently declines.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen in its journal Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics.
Volume (Year): 158 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
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- Rafael Barrera Gutiérrez, 2011. "El vacío institucional en el modelo de elección racional aplicado a la fecundidad," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(25), pages 223-248, July-Dece.
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