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The Crude Oil–Stock Market Dependence and Its Determinants: Evidence from Emerging Economies

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  • Xiaoqian Wen
  • Elie Bouri
  • Hua Cheng

Abstract

This article uses dependence-switching copulas and time-varying single copulas to characterize the world oil–stock market dependence in a broad range of emerging economies, and it then conducts a regression analysis to explore the determinants of the market dependence patterns. Our results support a positive crude oil-emerging stock market link overall. The regression results show that oil return volatility, country-specific variables (i.e., stock market volatility, petroleum production growth), and US economic policy uncertainty have positive effects on the oil–stock dependence. However, a strong US economy tends to decrease the oil–stock dependence. The robustness of these findings is confirmed.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoqian Wen & Elie Bouri & Hua Cheng, 2019. "The Crude Oil–Stock Market Dependence and Its Determinants: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(10), pages 2254-2274, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:55:y:2019:i:10:p:2254-2274
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1522247
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    Cited by:

    1. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Le, Anh, 2020. "The importance of managerial ability on crude oil price uncertainty-firm performance relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Gamboa-Arbelaez, Juliana, 2020. "Dynamic relations between oil and stock market returns: A multi-country study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Imtiaz Hussain Khan, 2023. "Oil price volatility and stock returns: Evidence from three oil‐price wars," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3162-3182, July.
    4. Lau, Chi Keung & Pal, Shreya & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Gozgor, Giray, 2022. "Economic globalization convergence in high and low globalized developing economies: Implications for the post Covid-19 era," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1027-1039.
    5. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Elie, Bouri & Naji, Jalkh & Dutta, Anupam & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2019. "Gold and crude oil as safe-haven assets for clean energy stock indices: Blended copulas approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 544-553.
    8. Saeed, Tareq & Bouri, Elie & Alsulami, Hamed, 2021. "Extreme return connectedness and its determinants between clean/green and dirty energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Wang, Shu & Zhou, Baicheng & Gao, Tianshu, 2023. "Speculation or actual demand? The return spillover effect between stock and commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    10. Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kasmaoui, Kamal & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Errami, Youssef, 2022. "The dual shocks of the COVID-19 and the oil price collapse: A spark or a setback for the circular economy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Tareq Saeed & Elie Bouri & Dang Khoa Tran, 2020. "Hedging Strategies of Green Assets against Dirty Energy Assets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Tareq Saeed, 2022. "Oil price risk exposure of BRIC stock markets and hedging effectiveness," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 145-170, June.
    13. Mushtaq Hussain Khan & Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal, 2022. "Dependence between oil price changes and sectoral stock returns in Pakistan: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(2), pages 315-331, March.
    14. Lin, Ling & Kuang, Yuanpei & Jiang, Yong & Su, Xianfang, 2019. "Assessing risk contagion among the Brent crude oil market, London gold market and stock markets: Evidence based on a new wavelet decomposition approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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