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Investor Trading Behavior and Sentiment in Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Gao
  • Chunpeng Yang

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of investor trading behavior and investor sentiment on futures market return. We find that the spot investor trading behavior, futures investor trading behavior, spot market sentiment, and futures market sentiment all have positive effects on daily futures returns in Chinese financial market. More importantly, we show that the effect of (spot) futures investor trading behavior has better explanatory power than (spot) futures market sentiment on futures returns. Further supporting our results, high investor trading behavior and high investor sentiment strengthen the positive relation between sentiment-returns and behavior-returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Gao & Chunpeng Yang, 2018. "Investor Trading Behavior and Sentiment in Futures Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 707-720, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:3:p:707-720
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1262760
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Bin & Xie, Jun & Jia, Yun, 2019. "A futures pricing model with long-term and short-term traders," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 9-28.
    2. Wen, Fenghua & Xu, Longhao & Ouyang, Guangda & Kou, Gang, 2019. "Retail investor attention and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Cui, Xin & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yao, Shouyu & Wu, Yiyao, 2022. "Positive information shocks, investor behavior and stock price crash risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 493-518.
    4. Gao, Bin & Liu, Xihua, 2020. "Intraday sentiment and market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 48-62.
    5. Li, Jinfang, 2022. "The sentiment pricing dynamics with short-term and long-term learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Li, Jinfang, 2020. "The momentum and reversal effects of investor sentiment on stock prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stock mispricing, hard-to-value stocks and the influence of internet stock message boards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Yongqiang Meng & Dehua Shen & Xiong Xiong & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2020. "A Socio-Finance Model: The Case of Bitcoin," Post-Print halshs-03048777, HAL.
    9. Liyun Zhou & Chunpeng Yang, 2020. "Investor sentiment, investor crowded-trade behavior, and limited arbitrage in the cross section of stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 437-460, July.
    10. Shah, Syed Faisal & Albaity, Mohamed, 2022. "The role of trust, investor sentiment, and uncertainty on bank stock return performance: Evidence from the MENA region," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    11. Yan Meng & Lingyun Xiong & Lijuan Xiao & Min Bai, 2023. "The effect of overseas investors on local market efficiency: evidence from the Shanghai/Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, December.
    12. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.
    13. Zhou, Liyun & Yang, Chunpeng, 2019. "Stochastic investor sentiment, crowdedness and deviation of asset prices from fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 130-140.
    14. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2021. "Stock Market’s responses to intraday investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Hao-Chang Yang & Ferry Syarifuddin & Chun-Ping Chang & Hai-Jie Wang, 2022. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Futures Fluctuations on Macroeconomy: Evidence from Ten Trading Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(8), pages 2300-2313, June.
    16. Yang, Baochen & Ye, Tao & Ma, Yao, 2022. "Financing anomaly, mispricing and cross-sectional return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 579-598.
    17. Wang, Ruina & Li, Jinfang, 2021. "The influence and predictive powers of mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2021. "Do opinion polls on government preference influence stock returns?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    19. Tan, Zhengxun & Xiao, Binuo & Huang, Yilong & Zhou, Li, 2021. "Value at risk and return in Chinese and the US stock markets: Double long memory and fractional cointegration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Wang, Yuanping & Wang, Dongfang & Hou, Chunxiao, 2022. "Information acquisition and asset allocation with unknown income growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

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