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Forecasting Wheat Production in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Falak Sher

    (Department of Economics, University of Sargodha, Pakistan.)

  • Eatzaz Ahmad

    (Professor of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

Abstract

This study analyzes the future prospects of wheat production in Pakistan. Parameters of the forecasting model are obtained by estimating a Cobb-Douglas production function for wheat, while future values of various inputs are obtained as dynamic forecasts on the basis of separate ARIMA estimates for each input and for each province. Input forecasts and parameters of the wheat production function are then used to generate wheat forecasts. The results of the study show that the most important variables for predicting wheat production per hectare (in order of importance) are: lagged output, labor force, use of tractors, and sum of the rainfall in the months of November to March. The null hypotheses of common coefficients across provinces for most of the variables cannot be rejected, implying that all variables play the same role in wheat production in all the four provinces. Forecasting performance of the model based on out-of-sample forecasts for the period 2005-06 is highly satisfactory with 1.81% mean absolute error. The future forecasts for the period of 2007-15 show steady growth of 1.6%, indicating that Pakistan will face a slight shortage of wheat output in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Falak Sher & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "Forecasting Wheat Production in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 57-85, Jan-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:57-85
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    File URL: http://121.52.153.179/JOURNAL/Vol13-No1/03%20Forecasting%20Wheat.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:mth:jas888:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:115-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nida Akram & Muhammad Waqar Akram & Hongshu Wang & Ayesha Mehmood, 2019. "Does Land Tenure Systems Affect Sustainable Agricultural Development?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Muhammad Aamir, Shahzad & Waqar, Akram & Muhammad, Khan, 2016. "Technical Efficiency Analysis of Wheat Farms in the Punjab, Pakistan: DEA Approach," MPRA Paper 81846, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Oct 2017.
    4. Muhammad Waqar Akram & Nida Akram & Wang Hongshu & Shahla Andleeb & Khalil ur Rehman & Umair Kashif & Ayesha Mehmood, 2019. "Impact of Land Use Rights on the Investment and Efficiency of Organic Farming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Muhammad Khan, "undated". "The Public and Private Benefits from Organic Farming in Pakistan," Working papers 100, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wheat; ARIMA; Production Function; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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