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Early Warning Signs of the Economic Crisis in Greece: A Warning for Other Countries and Regions

Author

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  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University,Australia.)

Abstract

Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth ratewas strongly unstable. On average, in less than 50 years, it decreased 10-folds but after reaching a low minimum it quickly increased 6-folds only to crash before completing the full cycle. The decreasing growthrate was leading to an asymptotic maximumof the GDP but it was soon replaced by a fast-increasing growth rate propelling the GDP alonga pseudo-hyperbolic trajectory, which if continued would have escaped to infinity in 2017. Such a growth could not have been possibly supported. Under these conditions, the economic collapse in Greece was inevitable.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "Early Warning Signs of the Economic Crisis in Greece: A Warning for Other Countries and Regions," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 460-466, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:2:y:2015:i:4:p:460-466
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christos Lyrintzis, 2011. "Greek Politics in the Era of Economic Crisis: Reassessing Causes and Effects," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 45, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Lyrintzis, Christos, 2011. "Greek politics in the era of economic crisis: reassessing causes and effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33826, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Felton, Andrew & Reinhart, Carmen M. (ed.), 2009. "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Part II: June–December, 2008," Vox eBooks, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number p199.
    4. Katsimi, Margarita & Moutos, Thomas, 2010. "EMU and the Greek crisis: The political-economy perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 568-576, December.
    5. repec:ksp:journ3:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:242-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Oltheten, Elisabeth & Pinteris, George & Sougiannis, Theodore, 2003. "Greece in the European Union: policy lessons from two decades of membership," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 774-806.
    7. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Papers 1510.07928, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Gross Domestic Product; Greece; Economic crisis; Future economic growth; Early warning signs.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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