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Ütemvakság
[Phase blindness]

Author

Listed:
  • Boda, György
  • Virág, Imre

Abstract

A gazdaság növekedés felgyorsulása hosszú távon először szükségszerűen csak egy rövid helyreállítási perióduson keresztül valósulhat meg, amelynek során a növekedés ütemét a válságok miatt elmaradt vagy más okból elmulasztott növekedés pótlása gyorsítja fel. Ez azonban messze nem jelenti a hosszú távú növekedési ütem felgyorsulását. A jelenséget először Jánossy Ferenc írta le, akinek megállapításai ma is érvényesek: egy jelentős visszaesés, majd stagnálás után a növekedési ütem 2005 után visszaállt az 1980 óta kialakult 1,5 százalékos hosszú távú ütemre. A Jánossy-féle szakmastruktúra-tényező nem más, mint a tudástőke: a munkaképes lakosság személyes tudása, jártassága és motivációja. Ezek az összetevők egy újrafogalmazott termelési függvény emberi elemei számos új és már korábban is ismert tényező mellett. Az emberi erőforrások nyilvántartása nem kompetenciaalapú, és emiatt a hosszú távú növekedési ütem alacsony szintjét sem tudjuk megmagyarázni. A növekedési ütem ingadozásai mögött elsősorban gazdaságpolitikai hibákat, érdemeket keresünk, holott az emberi beruházások elégtelen szintje jelenti a problémát, amely a múlt örökségnek és a jelen terheinek súlya alatt nem oldódik meg automatikusan. A magyar gazdaság egy újabb helyreállítási periódus előtt áll, s a gazdasági átalakítás alapvető feladata a foglalkoztatható lakosság aktivizálása, enélkül minden növekedési gyorsulás csak átmeneti helyreállítási periódus marad. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B23, C22, E01, O11.

Suggested Citation

  • Boda, György & Virág, Imre, 2010. "Ütemvakság [Phase blindness]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1087-1104.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1209
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekker, Zsuzsa, 1995. "A trendvonalról a századvégen, avagy megszabadulhatunk-e múltunktól? [About the trendline at the end of the century, or: can we get rid of our past?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 420-430.
    2. Raymond W. Goldsmith & Robert E. Lipsey & Morris Mendelson, 1963. "Studies in the National Balance Sheet of the United States, Volume 2," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gold63-2, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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