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GARCH-Stable as a Model of Futures Price Movements

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  • Liu, Shi-Miin
  • Brorsen, B Wade

Abstract

A GARCH-stable process is tested as a model of the distribution of daily future prices. The GARCH-stable process cannot be rejected as a model of 12 of the 37 price series considered. The evidence regarding stable distributions as a model of futures prices is not as unfavorable as suggested by some past research. The remaining rejections of the GARCH-stable model could be due to the inappropriateness of the stable distribution assumption or to other factors such as ignoring day-of-the-week effects and price limits. Copyright 1995 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Shi-Miin & Brorsen, B Wade, 1995. "GARCH-Stable as a Model of Futures Price Movements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 155-167, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:5:y:1995:i:2:p:155-67
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Guochao & Zheng, Shenzhou & Wang, Jun, 2020. "Fluctuation and volatility dynamics of stochastic interacting energy futures price model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).
    2. Calzolari, Giorgio & Halbleib, Roxana, 2018. "Estimating stable latent factor models by indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 280-301.
    3. Phillip A. Cartwright & Natalija Riabko, 2016. "Further evidence on the explanatory power of spot food and energy commodities market prices for futures prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 579-605, October.
    4. Calzolari, Giorgio & Halbleib, Roxana & Parrini, Alessandro, 2014. "Estimating GARCH-type models with symmetric stable innovations: Indirect inference versus maximum likelihood," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 158-171.
    5. Rao, Vadhindran K., 2000. "Preference-free optimal hedging using futures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 223-228, February.
    6. Francq, Christian & Meintanis, Simos, 2012. "Fourier--type estimation of the power garch model with stable--paretian innovations," MPRA Paper 41667, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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