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Expected Accrual Models: The Impact of Operating Cash Flows and Reversals of Accruals

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  • Jinhan Pae

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    Abstract

    This paper augments the Jones (1991) model with operating cash flows and lagged accruals to evaluate the impact of (1) the negative association between accruals and concurrent cash flows, (2) the positive association between accruals and lagged cash flows, and (3) the reversal of accruals. I find that operating cash flows greatly improve the explanatory and predictive power of the Jones model; but, lagged accruals do not. A market test of the expected and unexpected components of accruals indicates that unexpected accruals are on average informative with respect to concurrent stock returns; however, the market does not fully understand the implications of accruals anticipated at the beginning of the return period. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-005-5324-7
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 5-22

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:24:y:2005:i:1:p:5-22

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    Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102990

    Related research

    Keywords: unexpected accruals; expected accruals; discretionary accruals; non-discretionary accruals; Jones model; reversals of accruals;

    References

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    1. Subramanyam, K. R., 1996. "The pricing of discretionary accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 249-281, October.
    2. Nelson, Karen K. & Barth, Mary E. & Cram, Donald, 2001. "Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows," Research Papers 1594r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. DeFond, Mark L. & Jiambalvo, James, 1994. "Debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 145-176, January.
    4. Dechow, Patricia M. & Sloan, Richard G., 1991. "Executive incentives and the horizon problem : An empirical investigation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 51-89, March.
    5. Healy, Paul M., 1985. "The effect of bonus schemes on accounting decisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-3), pages 85-107, April.
    6. Paul Hribar, 2002. "Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, 03.
    7. Guay, W. & Kothari, S.P. & Watts, R.L., 1996. "A Market-Based Evaluation of Discretionary-Accrual Models," Papers 96-01, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
    8. Beneish, Messod D., 1997. "Detecting GAAP violation: implications for assessing earnings management among firms with extreme financial performance," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 271-309.
    9. Thomas, Jacob & Zhang, Xiao-jun, 2000. "Identifying unexpected accruals: a comparison of current approaches," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4-5), pages 347-376.
    10. Dechow, Patricia M., 1994. "Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance : The role of accounting accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Belén Gill de Albornoz Noguer & Manuel Illueca Muñoz, 2007. "La calidad de los ajustes por devengo no afecta al coste de la deuda de las PYMES españolas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 31(1), pages 79-117, January.
    2. Edilson Paulo & Paulo Roberto Nóbrega Cavalcante & Iana Izadora Souza Lapa de Melo, 2012. "Accounting information quality in public stock and bond offerings by brazilian public companies," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, January.

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