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Economic Outcomes and Voting Behaviour in a Multi-party System: An Application to the Netherlands

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  • Swank, O H
  • Eisinga, R

Abstract

This paper is an empirical study to the effects of economic outcomes on party choice for the Netherlands. In the first part of the paper we employ a multinomial logit model to examine the links between voters' characteristics and party choice. The results suggest that there are long-run movements in party choice which are unlikely be the result of changing economic outcomes. In the second part, we use time series analysis to determine the effects of economic conditions on short-run and medium-run movements in votes shares. The estimations results provide support for the responsibility hypothesis and for the predictions of the partisan voter model that left-wing (right-wing) parties benefit (suffer) from favourable economic growth prospects. Copyright 1999 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Swank, O H & Eisinga, R, 1999. "Economic Outcomes and Voting Behaviour in a Multi-party System: An Application to the Netherlands," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 101(3-4), pages 195-213, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:101:y:1999:i:3-4:p:195-213
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    Cited by:

    1. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2014. "Voting Islamist or voting secular? An empirical analysis of voting outcomes in Egypt’s “Arab Spring”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 109-130, July.
    2. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2013. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in "Arab Spring" Egypt," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2013-01, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    3. Chang Wen-Chun, 2008. "Toward Independence or Unification?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-32, January.
    4. May Elsayyad & Shima'a Hanafy, 2012. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in “Arab Spring” Egypt," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201251, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Paap, Richard & van Nierop, Erjen & van Heerde, Harald J. & Wedel, Michel & Franses, Philip Hans & Alsem, Karel Jan, 2005. "Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-71.
    6. Chortareas, Georgios & Logothetis, Vasileios & Papandreou, Andreas A., 2016. "Political budget cycles and reelection prospects in Greece's municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    7. Ivo Bischoff & Lars-H. Siemers, 2013. "Biased beliefs and retrospective voting: why democracies choose mediocre policies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 163-180, July.
    8. Jones, Philip & Dawson, Peter, 2007. "`Choice' in collective decision-making processes: Instrumental or expressive approval?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 102-117, February.

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