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Biases in Assessments of Probabilities: New Evidence from Greyhound Races

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  • Terrell, Dek
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates biases in the perceptions of probabilities using data from the 1989 and 1994 seasons at the Woodlands greyhound park in Kansas City, Kansas. Results reveal consistent evidence that the gambler's fallacy exists. The results also reveal that gamblers overestimate the probability of a win by the favorite and the dog in the "lucky" seven position. However, the comparison also suggests some learning by bettors between the first season of operation in 1989 and the 1994 season. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

    Volume (Year): 17 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 2 (November)
    Pages: 151-66

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:17:y:1998:i:2:p:151-66

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

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    Cited by:
    1. Kaivanto, Kim & Kroll, Eike B., 2012. "Negative recency, randomization device choice, and reduction of compound lotteries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 263-267.
    2. Russell Sobel & S. Travis Raines, 2003. "An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 371-385.
    3. Rachel Croson & James Sundali, 2005. "The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 195-209, May.
    4. Andrey Kudryavtsev & Gil Cohen & Shlomit Hon-Snir, 2013. "“Rational” or “Intuitive”: Are Behavioral Biases Correlated Across Stock Market Investors?," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(2), June.

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