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New Marshall-Lerner conditions for an economy with outward and two-way foreign direct investment

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  • Paul J. J. Welfens

    (Schumpeter School of Business and Economics, Bergische Universität Wuppertal)

Abstract

The international debate about trade imbalances often puts the focus on the role of domestic GDP/foreign GDP and the role of real exchange rate changes – with respect to the latter adjustment channel, the standard question is whether or not the Marshall-Lerner condition is fulfilled. While recent trade literature has focused on exchange rate pass-through the role of FDI has not been much discussed. With outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and inward FDI becoming increasingly important, the question about the real exchange rate impact on the trade balance has to be restated as imports are proportionate to real gross national income and this indeed implies a new Marshall-Lerner condition. It is shown that with outward cumulated FDI, the modified condition is stricter than the traditional case and with both outward FDI and inward FDI, the elasticity requirement is ambiguous. “FDI globalization” might go along with unpleasant trade imbalance problems so that additional empirical research is needed as well as stronger international policy cooperation as high trade balance deficits/high trade balance surplus positions could be rather difficult to correct through exchange rate adjustments only. Looking at the import elasticities for all partner countries of the US – or country x – together is quite misleading for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "New Marshall-Lerner conditions for an economy with outward and two-way foreign direct investment," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 593-617, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:16:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-019-00450-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-019-00450-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade balance; Foreign direct investment; Real exchange rate; Macroeconomics; Economic policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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