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Economy 4.0: employment effects by occupation, industry, and gender

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Eder

    (Institute for Industrial Research
    University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

  • Wolfgang Koller

    (Institute for Industrial Research)

  • Bernhard Mahlberg

    (Institute for Industrial Research
    Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate how the diffusion of the new digital technologies (Economy 4.0-technologies) affects the magnitude and composition of employment in Austria. For this purpose, an input–output framework is adopted taking into account direct as well as indirect effects of the new technologies by industry, occupation and gender. These employment effects are estimated as the difference between a base economy (as represented by a recent Austrian input–output table) and an economy after a 10-year transformation period with the introduction of new production technologies and development of new products for final demand. Based on substitution potentials estimated on detailed occupational level available from previous research, we model the changes in labour productivity. Combining two different scenarios of labour productivity change with two different assumptions about collective wage bargaining outcomes gives us four possible scenarios of macroeconomic paths of Economy 4.0. The results show that due to Economy 4.0 during the next 10 years job displacement will probably be greater than job creation and aggregate employment will decline by 0.80–4.81% relative to total present employment. Furthermore, the results indicate that occupations gaining in employment are highly skilled while the occupations losing in employment are medium-skilled. Also, female workers are adversely affected in terms of employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Eder & Wolfgang Koller & Bernhard Mahlberg, 2022. "Economy 4.0: employment effects by occupation, industry, and gender," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1063-1088, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:49:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10663-022-09543-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-022-09543-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Digitalisation; Labour demand; Projection; Scenario analysis; Input output analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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