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Black swans or creeping normalcy? – An attempt to a holistic crisis analysis

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  • Olivér KOVÁCS

    ()
    (University of Debrecen, Doctoral School of Economics, Budapest, Hungary)

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    Abstract

    In this article we address the daunting challenge of current economic recovery by contributing to the better understanding of its secular feature. In so doing we devote special attention to the secular decline in innovativeness by raising three interlinked and interrelated explanatory phenomena: (i) lowering productivity in the new techno-economic paradigm; (ii) the effect of the different degree of employment protection; and (iii) the issue of pent up disruptive innovations. We argue that these phenomena are not black swans; however, they have been developing in commonly unnoticed increments by manifesting the so-called ‘creeping normalcy’ and being endogenous to the market system. The paper draws lessons to be learned for the Central and Eastern European Member States as well.

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    File URL: http://ejes.uaic.ro/articles/EJES2013_0401_KOV.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University in its journal Eastern Journal of European Studies.

    Volume (Year): 4(1) (2013)
    Issue (Month): (June)
    Pages: 127-143

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    Handle: RePEc:jes:journl:y:2013:v:4:p:127-143

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    Related research

    Keywords: crisis; productivity; innovation; secular deterioration; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe;

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    1. Carlota Perez, 2009. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," The Other Canon Foundation and Tallinn University of Technology Working Papers in Technology Governance and Economic Dynamics 20, TUT Ragnar Nurkse School of Innovation and Governance.
    2. Crafts, Nicholas & Toniolo, Gianni, 2008. "European Economic Growth, 1950-2005: An Overview," CEPR Discussion Papers 6863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kornai, J. & Ely, R.T., 1992. "The Postsocialist Transition and the State: Reflections in the Light of Hungarian Fiscal Problems," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1583, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Eric J. Bartelsman & Pieter A. Gautier & Joris de Wind, 2010. "Employment Protection, Technology Choice, and Worker Allocation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-042/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Juraj Stancik & Federico Biagi, 2012. "Characterizing the Evolution of the EU-US R&D Intensity Gap using Data from Top R&D Performers," JRC-IPTS Working Papers JRC75892, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Swan, Peter L, 1970. "Market Structure and Technological Progress: The Influence of Monopoly on Product Innovation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 627-38, November.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Schmidt, Tobias & Rammer, Christian, 2007. "Non-technological and Technological Innovation: Strange Bedfellows?," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-052, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    9. Eric J. Bartelsman & Pieter A. Gautier & Joris de Wind, 2010. "Employment Protection, Technology Choice, and Worker Allocation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-042/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Bengt-Åke Lundvall, 2002. "The University in the Learning Economy," DRUID Working Papers 02-06, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
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