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Soft Power, World System Dynamics, and Democratization: A Bass Model of Democracy Diffusion 1800-2000

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Abstract

This article uses Polity IV data to probe system dynamics for studies of the global diffusion of democracy from 1800 to 2000. By analogy with the Bass model of diffusion of innovations, as translated into system dynamics by Sterman, the dynamic explanation proposed focuses on transitions to democracy, soft power, and communication rates on a global level. The analysis suggests that the transition from democratic experiences ('the soft power of democracy') can be estimated from the systems dynamics simulation of an extended Bass model. Soft power, fueled by the growth in communications worldwide, is today the major force behind the diffusion of democracy. Our findings indicate the applicability of system dynamics simulation tools for the analysis of political change over time in the world system of polities.

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  • Mikael Sandberg, 2011. "Soft Power, World System Dynamics, and Democratization: A Bass Model of Democracy Diffusion 1800-2000," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 14(1), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2010-20-3
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    1. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
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    6. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1825-1832, December.
    7. Hadenius,Axel, 1992. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521416856.
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    12. McCrone, Donald J. & Cnudde, Charles F., 1967. "Toward a Communications Theory of Democratic Political Development: A Causal Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 72-79, March.
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    1. Xiaoyu Li & Jiahong Yuan & Yan Shi & Tianteng Wang & Xiangpei Hu & Felix Tung Sun Chan & Junhu Ruan, 2020. "An extended Bass Model on consumer quantity of B2C commerce platforms," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 609-628, September.

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