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Beşinci ve Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgalarının Teknolojik ve Sosyoekonomik Etkileri

Author

Listed:
  • Furkan BÖRÜ

    (Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası T.A.O., Saray Mahallesi Dr. Adnan Büyükdeniz Caddesi No: 7/A-B, Umraniye, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Dündar Murat DEMİRÖZ

    (Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economic Development and International Economics, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

Sanayi Devrimi’nden sonra, kapitalist ekonomiler hızlı büyümeye sürecine girmişlerdir. Fakat bu büyüme süreci dengeli değildir. Hızlı genişleme dönemlerini genellikle, sosyal refahın düşmesine ve yoksulluğa neden olan kriz dönemleri takip etmektedir. Takriben elli yıl süren Kondratieff Dalgaları, bu dalgalı gelişim sürecini teknolojik gelişmeler ve yenilikler ile ilişkili olarak açıklamaktadırlar. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Kondratieff Dalgalarının yarattığı yapısal ve kurumsal dönüşümleri açıklamak; bu çerçevede beklenen Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgası’nın yaratacağı etkileri incelemektir. Bu amaçla Carlota Perez tarafından ortaya konulan büyük gelişme dalgası yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlamasının, işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve finans sektörü ile sanayi sektörü arasında bulunan bağların kopması sorunlarını derinleştireceği öngörüsü, çalışmanın ulaştığı en önemli sonuçtur. İçinde bulunduğumuz süreçte ve gelecek dönemde, bilgi teknolojilerinin etkilerinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha çok hissedilmesi beklenmektedir. Bu durumun gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nı başlatması olasıdır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlaması; işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve finans sektörü ile sanayi sektörü arasında bulunan bağların kopması gibi sorunları gündeme getirebilir. Mevcut durumda birçok gelişmekte olan ülkede bu sorunlar mevcuttur. Bu nedenle Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlaması, mevcut olan sorunları daha da ağırlaştıracaktır. Bu öngörü, çalışmanın ulaştığı diğer bir önemli sonuçtur.

Suggested Citation

  • Furkan BÖRÜ & Dündar Murat DEMİRÖZ, 2019. "Beşinci ve Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgalarının Teknolojik ve Sosyoekonomik Etkileri," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 247-283, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:journl:v:69:y:2019:i:2:p:247-283
    DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uzun Dalgalar; Yapısal Dönüşüm; Yenilik;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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