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Factors Influencing Blind Conflict Risk in En Route Sectors Under Free-Flight Conditions

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  • Thomas R. Willemain

    (Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180-3590)

Abstract

We develop a simulation model of the flight of aircraft through an en route sector. The model is used in two experiments. The first studies the effect of directional clumping on risk. The second is a full factorial design with replication, which simulates a large number of scenarios to assess the impact of key input factors on free-flight risk measures. We measure risk for a given flight by the mean distance of closest approach to other aircraft and the mean number of approaches closer than a specified distance. Using analysis of variance and regression analysis, we determine that the most important influences on blind collision risk are time of entry into the sector and number of aircraft. Also influential are certain orientations of flight paths and the distribution of airspeeds. The least important factor is altitude. The relationship between number of aircraft and the two risk measures can be quantified in regression relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Willemain, 2003. "Factors Influencing Blind Conflict Risk in En Route Sectors Under Free-Flight Conditions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 457-470, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:37:y:2003:i:4:p:457-470
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.37.4.457.23273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Datta, K. & Oliver, R. M., 1991. "Predicting risk of near midair collisions in controlled airspace," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 237-252, August.
    2. Hanif D. Sherali & J. Cole Smith & Antonio A. Trani & Srinivas Sale, 2000. "National Airspace Sector Occupancy and Conflict Analysis Models for Evaluating Scenarios under the Free-Flight Paradigm," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 321-336, November.
    3. Hockaday, Stephen L. M. & Chatziioanou, Alypios, 1986. "An analytical method for aircraft collision risk estimation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 415-428, October.
    4. Arnold Barnett, 1999. "A "Parallel Approach" Path to Estimating Collision Risk During Simultaneous Landings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 382-394, March.
    5. Arnold Barnett, 2000. "Free-Flight and en Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(6), pages 833-845, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghoneim, Ayman & Abbass, Hussein A., 2016. "A multiobjective distance separation methodology to determine sector-level minimum separation for safe air traffic scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 226-240.
    2. Prot, D. & Rapine, C. & Constans, S. & Fondacci, R., 2014. "A 4D-sequencing approach for air traffic management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 411-425.

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