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Exact Simulation of Point Processes with Stochastic Intensities

Author

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  • K. Giesecke

    (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

  • H. Kakavand

    (The Perot Group)

  • M. Mousavi

    (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

Abstract

Point processes with stochastic arrival intensities are ubiquitous in many areas, including finance, insurance, reliability, health care, and queuing. They can be simulated from a Poisson process by time scaling with the cumulative intensity. The paths of the cumulative intensity are often generated with a discretization method. However, discretization introduces bias into the simulation results. The magnitude of the bias is difficult to quantify. This paper develops a sampling method that eliminates the need to discretize the cumulative intensity. The method is based on a projection argument and leads to unbiased simulation estimators. It is exemplified for a point process whose intensity is a function of a jump-diffusion process and the point process itself. In this setting, the method facilitates the exact sampling of both the point process and the driving jump-diffusion process. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Giesecke & H. Kakavand & M. Mousavi, 2011. "Exact Simulation of Point Processes with Stochastic Intensities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1233-1245, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:59:y:2011:i:5:p:1233-1245
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1110.0962
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Campi, Luciano & Zabaljauregui, Diego, 2020. "Optimal market making under partial information with general intensities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104612, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    3. Christoph Zechner & Heinz Koeppl, 2014. "Uncoupled Analysis of Stochastic Reaction Networks in Fluctuating Environments," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Tim J. Brereton & Dirk P. Kroese & Joshua C. Chan, 2012. "Monte Carlo Methods for Portfolio Credit Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-579, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    5. Barış Ata & Xiaoshan Peng, 2020. "An Optimal Callback Policy for General Arrival Processes: A Pathwise Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 327-347, March.
    6. Dassios, Angelos & Zhao, Hongbiao, 2017. "Efficient simulation of clustering jumps with CIR intensity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 74205, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Wei, Wei & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Generic improvements to least squares monte carlo methods with applications to optimal stopping problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 1132-1144.
    8. Li, Chenxu & Wu, Linjia, 2019. "Exact simulation of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck driven stochastic volatility model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 768-779.
    9. Diego Zabaljauregui, 2020. "Optimal market making under partial information and numerical methods for impulse control games with applications," Papers 2009.06521, arXiv.org.
    10. Diego Zabaljauregui & Luciano Campi, 2019. "Optimal market making under partial information with general intensities," Papers 1902.01157, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    11. Li, Chenxu & Chen, Dachuan, 2016. "Estimating jump–diffusions using closed-form likelihood expansions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 51-70.
    12. Kay Giesecke & Dmitry Smelov, 2013. "Exact Sampling of Jump Diffusions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 894-907, August.
    13. Sadoghi, Amirhossein & Vecer, Jan, 2022. "Optimal liquidation problem in illiquid markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(3), pages 1050-1066.
    14. Amirhossein Sadoghi & Jan Vecer, 2022. "Optimal liquidation problem in illiquid markets," Post-Print hal-03696768, HAL.

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