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Quadratic Portfolio Credit Risk models with Shot-noise Effects

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Abstract

We propose a reduced form model for default that allows us to derive closed-form solutions to all the key ingredients in credit risk modeling: risk-free bond prices, defaultable bond prices (with and without stochastic recovery) and probabilities of survival. We show that all these quantities can be represented in general exponential quadratic forms, despite the fact that the intensity is allowed to jump producing shot-noise effects. In addition, we show how to price defaultable digital puts, CDSs and options on defaultable bonds. Further on, we study a model for portfolio credit risk where we consider both firm specific and systematic risks. The model generalizes the attempt from Duffie and Garleanu (2001). We find that the model produces realistic default correlation and clustering of defaults. Then, we show how to price first-to-default swaps, CDOs, and draw the link to currently proposed credit indices.

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  • Gaspar, Raquel M. & Schmidt, Thorsten, 2005. "Quadratic Portfolio Credit Risk models with Shot-noise Effects," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 616, Stockholm School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0616
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    1. Ernst Eberlein & Sebastian Raible, 1999. "Term Structure Models Driven by General Lévy Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 31-53, January.
    2. Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2002. "Asset Pricing under the Quadratic Class," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 271-295, June.
    3. Damir Filipović, 2002. "Separable Term Structures And The Maximal Degree Problem," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 341-349, October.
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    5. Schönbucher, Philipp J., 2000. "A Libor Market Model with Default Risk," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 15/2001, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    6. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    8. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    9. Gaspar, Raquel M. & Slinko, Irina, 2005. "Correlation Between Intensity and Recovery in Credit Risk Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 614, Stockholm School of Economics.
    10. Gaspar, Raquel M., 2004. "General Quadratic Term Structures of Bond, Futures and Forward Prices," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 559, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Li Chen & Damir Filipović & H. Vincent Poor, 2004. "Quadratic Term Structure Models For Risk‐Free And Defaultable Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 515-536, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chernobai, Anna & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2008. "The dynamics of operational loss clustering," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2655-2666, December.
    2. Gaspar, Raquel M. & Slinko, Irina, 2005. "Correlation Between Intensity and Recovery in Credit Risk Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 614, Stockholm School of Economics.
    3. Schmidt, Thorsten & Stute, Winfried, 2007. "Shot-noise processes and the minimal martingale measure," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(12), pages 1332-1338, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; reduced-form models; CDS; CDO; quadratic term structures; shot-noise;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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