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Quadratic Portfolio Credit Risk models with Shot-noise Effects

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Author Info
Gaspar, Raquel M. () (Dept. of Finance, Stockholm School of Economics)
Schmidt, Thorsten () (Department of Mathematics, University of Leipzig)

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Abstract

We propose a reduced form model for default that allows us to derive closed-form solutions to all the key ingredients in credit risk modeling: risk-free bond prices, defaultable bond prices (with and without stochastic recovery) and probabilities of survival. We show that all these quantities can be represented in general exponential quadratic forms, despite the fact that the intensity is allowed to jump producing shot-noise effects. In addition, we show how to price defaultable digital puts, CDSs and options on defaultable bonds. Further on, we study a model for portfolio credit risk where we consider both firm specific and systematic risks. The model generalizes the attempt from Duffie and Garleanu (2001). We find that the model produces realistic default correlation and clustering of defaults. Then, we show how to price first-to-default swaps, CDOs, and draw the link to currently proposed credit indices.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 616.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 02 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0616

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Related research
Keywords: Credit risk; reduced-form models; CDS; CDO; quadratic term structures; shot-noise;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Markus Leippold & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Asset Pricing Under The Quadratic Class," Finance 0207015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
  3. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
  4. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
  5. Gaspar, Raquel M., 2004. "General Quadratic Term Structures of Bond, Futures and Forward Prices," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 559, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gaspar, Raquel M. & Slinko, Irina, 2005. "Correlation Between Intensity and Recovery in Credit Risk Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 614, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philipp J. Schönbucher, 2000. "A Libor Market Model with Default Risk," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse15_2001, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gaspar, Raquel M. & Slinko, Irina, 2005. "Correlation Between Intensity and Recovery in Credit Risk Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 614, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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