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Diffusion and Advertising: The German Telephone Campaign

Author

Listed:
  • Hermann Simon

    (USW The German Management Institute, 5042 Erftstadt/Cologne, Federal Republic of Germany)

  • Karl-Heinz Sebastian

    (UNIC-University Connection GmbH, 5300 Bonn 1, Federal Republic of Germany)

Abstract

The goal of the present paper is to investigate the influence of advertising on the diffusion of new telephones in West Germany. Several alternative ways of integrating advertising into the well-known Bass-diffusion-model are suggested and empirically tested. The econometric investigation yields results which are consistent with the behavioral assumption. A model which assumes that advertising mainly influenced the demand of imitators is accepted as the most valid representation of reality. The lag structure of advertising response was best captured by a Nerlove-Arrow-model. Advertising attained its maximum effect after several months. A cumulative measure of the total advertising effect is suggested and quantified. Directions for potential generalizations are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hermann Simon & Karl-Heinz Sebastian, 1987. "Diffusion and Advertising: The German Telephone Campaign," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 451-466, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:4:p:451-466
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.4.451
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferreira, Kevin D. & Lee, Chi-Guhn, 2014. "An integrated two-stage diffusion of innovation model with market segmented learning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 189-201.
    2. Amini, Mehdi & Wakolbinger, Tina & Racer, Michael & Nejad, Mohammad G., 2012. "Alternative supply chain production–sales policies for new product diffusion: An agent-based modeling and simulation approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 301-311.
    3. Ruiz-Conde, Enar & Wieringa, Jaap E. & Leeflang, Peter S.H., 2014. "Competitive diffusion of new prescription drugs: The role of pharmaceutical marketing investment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 49-63.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
    6. Scott A. Shane & Karl T. Ulrich, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: Technological Innovation, Product Development, and Entrepreneurship in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 133-144, February.
    7. Fildes, Robert & Kumar, V., 2002. "Telecommunications demand forecasting--a review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 489-522.
    8. Yan, Xiaoming & Liu, Ke, 2009. "Optimal control problems for a new product with word-of-mouth," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 402-414, June.
    9. Robert Bartels & Towhidul Islam, 2002. "Supply Restricted Telecommunications Markets: The Effect of Technical Efficiency on Waiting Times," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 161-169, September.
    10. Sunil Kumar & Jayashankar M. Swaminathan, 2003. "Diffusion of Innovations Under Supply Constraints," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(6), pages 866-879, December.
    11. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Yi Xiang & David Soberman & Hubert Gatignon, 2022. "The Effect of Marketing Breadth and Competitive Spread on Category Growth," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(2), pages 622-644, February.
    13. Han, Zhongya & Tang, Zhongjun & He, Bo, 2022. "Improved Bass model for predicting the popularity of product information posted on microblogs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    14. Barnes, Belinda & Southwell, Darren & Bruce, Sarah & Woodhams, Felicity, 2014. "Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-61.
    15. Bo-Seong Yun & Sang-Gun Lee & Yaichi Aoshima, 2019. "An analysis of the trilemma phenomenon for Apple iPhone and Samsung Galaxy," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 13(4), pages 779-812, December.
    16. Chang, Byeong-Yun & Li, Xu & Kim, Yun Bae, 2014. "Performance comparison of two diffusion models in a saturated mobile phone market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 41-48.
    17. Elmar Kiesling & Markus Günther & Christian Stummer & Lea Wakolbinger, 2012. "Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(2), pages 183-230, June.
    18. Teck-Hua Ho & Sergei Savin & Christian Terwiesch, 2002. "Managing Demand and Sales Dynamics in New Product Diffusion Under Supply Constraint," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 187-206, February.
    19. Hermann Simon, 2008. "Betriebswirtschaftliche Wissenschaft und Unternehmenspraxis," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 73-93, February.
    20. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    21. Sanjeev Swami & Pankaj Khairnar, 2006. "Optimal normative policies for marketing of products with limited availability," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 107-121, March.
    22. S. Beifuss & W. Proskurowski & F. E. Udwadia, 1997. "Incorporating Managerial Thinking in Prediction and Control: Case Study of Market Penetration," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 92(2), pages 225-248, February.

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