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Uncertainty, Competition, and the Adoption of New Technology

Author

Listed:
  • John W. Mamer

    (Graduate School of Management, UCLA, Los Angeles, California 90024)

  • Kevin F. McCardle

    (The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706)

Abstract

Faced with the decision of whether or not to adopt a new technology whose economic value cannot be gauged with certainty, the manager of the firm may elect to decrease the uncertainty by sequentially gathering information (at a unit cost of c > 0), updating his prior beliefs in a Bayesian manner. Uncertainty regarding the actions of a competitor, however, cannot be reduced. Our model allows a manager to account for potential competition, either substitute or complementary, by inclusion of strategic considerations modelled in a game theoretic setting. We show that the firm's best response mapping satisfies a dynamic programming recursion (even when the one period reward function is unbounded) providing management with a familiar tool to solve its problem. Best response behavior is characterized by a monotone sequence of pairs of threshold numbers which give rise to a "cone-shaped" continuation region. The continuation region is shown to shift up (down) with increases in the expected level of substitute (complementary) competition making the firm less (more) likely to adopt the innovation. Finally, the existence of a Nash equilibrium in cone-shaped strategies is established.

Suggested Citation

  • John W. Mamer & Kevin F. McCardle, 1987. "Uncertainty, Competition, and the Adoption of New Technology," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 161-177, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:2:p:161-177
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.2.161
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Souza, Gilvan C., 2004. "Product introduction decisions in a duopoly," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(3), pages 745-757, February.
    2. Sanjiv Erat & Stylianos Kavadias, 2006. "Introduction of New Technologies to Competing Industrial Customers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(11), pages 1675-1688, November.
    3. Fazıl Paç, M. & Savin, Sergei & Velu, Chander, 2018. "When to adopt a service innovation: Nash equilibria in a competitive diffusion framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 968-984.
    4. Li, Ying & Jin, Yanhong H., 2009. "Racing to market leadership: Product launch and upgrade decisions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 284-297, June.
    5. Meijer, Ineke S.M. & Hekkert, Marko P. & Koppenjan, Joop F.M., 2007. "The influence of perceived uncertainty on entrepreneurial action in emerging renewable energy technology; biomass gasification projects in the Netherlands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5836-5854, November.
    6. Glen M. Schmidt & Evan L. Porteus, 2000. "Sustaining Technology Leadership Can Require Both Cost Competence and Innovative Competence," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Escarce, JoseJ., 1996. "Externalities in hospitals and physician adoption of a new surgical technology: An exploratory analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 715-734, December.
    8. Jing, Fei & Lin, Jun & Zhang, Qiao & Qian, Yanjun, 2022. "New technology introduction and product rollover strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 324-336.
    9. H. Dharma Kwon & Wenxin Xu & Anupam Agrawal & Suresh Muthulingam, 2016. "Impact of Bayesian Learning and Externalities on Strategic Investment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 550-570, February.
    10. Rajiv D. Banker & Robert J. Kauffman, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: The Evolution of Research on Information Systems: A Fiftieth-Year Survey of the Literature in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 281-298, March.
    11. Cowan, Kelly R. & Daim, Tugrul U., 2011. "Review of technology acquisition and adoption research in the energy sector," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 183-199.
    12. Fehmi Tanrısever & S. Sinan Erzurumlu & Nitin Joglekar, 2012. "Production, Process Investment, and the Survival of Debt‐Financed Startup Firms," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 21(4), pages 637-652, July.
    13. Lefebvre, Louis-A. & Lefebvre, Élisabeth, 1988. "Technologie et libre-échange : une complicité souhaitable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 64(4), pages 616-629, décembre.
    14. Yan Anthea Zhang & Zhuo Emma Chen & Yuandi Wang, 2021. "Which patents to use as loan collaterals? The role of newness of patents' external technology linkage," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 1822-1849, October.
    15. Derbyshire, James & Giovannetti, Emanuele, 2017. "Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 334-344.

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