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Kidney Transplantation: A Simulation Model for Examining Demand and Supply

Author

Listed:
  • R. Jean Ruth

    (School of Business Administration, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201)

  • Leon Wyszewianski

    (School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109)

  • Gary Herline

    (Transplantation Society of Michigan)

Abstract

In most regions of the United States there is a serious imbalance between the number of kidneys donated for transplantation and the number of persons wishing to receive a transplant. This not only affects the quality of life of those unable to obtain a transplant, but it also has important repercussions on the large and rapidly growing federal expenditures for the treatment of end-stage renal disease by transplantation and dialysis. A simulation model was constructed to assess the impact that changes in the number of cadaveric kidneys donated in Michigan would have on the waiting list of potential kidney transplant recipients in the state. The model represents the process of matching donated kidneys to people on the waiting list, taking into account the compatibility of the donor with the potential recipient's blood type and the tissue compatibility of the recipient to the donor as estimated by cytotoxicity. We describe the structure and data needs of the model, and we discuss the results obtained for Michigan. It was found that, under the current conditions, the waiting list would continue to grow rapidly. The number of donors needed to compensate for this growth would have to be disproportionately large: as the number of donations increases the effect of each donation in reducing the waiting list is less. The approach is applicable to other regions and it should also be adaptable to other types of organ transplants that require tissue compatibility, once such transplants become common enough to warrant regional coordination of the matching of recipients with donors.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Jean Ruth & Leon Wyszewianski & Gary Herline, 1985. "Kidney Transplantation: A Simulation Model for Examining Demand and Supply," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(5), pages 515-526, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:31:y:1985:i:5:p:515-526
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.31.5.515
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Mengling & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Xu, Menghan, 2023. "Prioritized organ allocation rules under compatibility constraints," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 403-427.
    2. Ozge Ceren Ersoy & Diwakar Gupta & Timothy Pruett, 2021. "A critical look at the U.S. deceased‐donor organ procurement and utilization system," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(1), pages 3-29, February.
    3. Li, Mengling & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Xu, Menghan, 2022. "Remedying adverse selection in donor-priority rule using freeze period: Theory and experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 384-407.
    4. Stefanos A. Zenios & Glenn M. Chertow & Lawrence M. Wein, 2000. "Dynamic Allocation of Kidneys to Candidates on the Transplant Waiting List," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 549-569, August.
    5. Zahra Gharibi & Michael Hahsler, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Optimization Model to Study the Impact of Multiple-Region Listing and Information Sharing on Kidney Transplant Outcomes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Dimitris Bertsimas & Vivek F. Farias & Nikolaos Trichakis, 2013. "Fairness, Efficiency, and Flexibility in Organ Allocation for Kidney Transplantation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 73-87, February.
    7. Kargar, Bahareh & Pishvaee, Mir Saman & Jahani, Hamed & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2020. "Organ transportation and allocation problem under medical uncertainty: A real case study of liver transplantation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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