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Experimental Designs and Estimation for Online Display Advertising Attribution in Marketplaces

Author

Listed:
  • Joel Barajas

    (University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064)

  • Ram Akella

    (School of Information, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720; and University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064)

  • Marius Holtan

    (AOL Research, Palo Alto, California 94306)

  • Aaron Flores

    (AOL Research, Palo Alto, California 94306)

Abstract

Online Display Advertising’s importance as a marketing channel is partially due to its ability to attribute conversions to campaigns. Current industry practice to measure ad effectiveness is to run randomized experiments using placebo ads, assuming external validity for future exposures. We identify two different effects, i.e., a strategic effect of the campaign presence in marketplaces, and a selection effect due to user targeting; these are confounded in current practices. We propose two novel randomized designs to: (1) estimate the overall campaign attribution without placebo ads, (2) disaggregate the campaign presence and ad effects. Using the Potential Outcomes Causal Model, we address the selection effect by estimating the probability of selecting influenceable users. We show the ex-ante value of continuing evaluation to enhance the user selection for ad exposure mid-flight. We analyze two performance-based (CPA) and one Cost-Per-Impression (CPM) campaigns with 20 million users each. We estimate a negative CPM campaign presence effect due to cross product spillovers. Experimental evidence suggests that CPA campaigns incentivize selection of converting users regardless of the ad, up to 96% more than CPM campaigns, thus challenging the standard practice of targeting most likely converting users.Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2016.0982 .

Suggested Citation

  • Joel Barajas & Ram Akella & Marius Holtan & Aaron Flores, 2016. "Experimental Designs and Estimation for Online Display Advertising Attribution in Marketplaces," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 465-483, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:35:y:2016:i:3:p:465-483
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.2016.0982
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Ruihuan & Zhong, Yu & Nair, Harikesh S. & Cui, Bo & Shou, Ruyang, 2019. "Causally Driven Incremental Multi Touch Attribution Using a Recurrent Neural Network," Research Papers 3761, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    2. Brett R Gordon & Kinshuk Jerath & Zsolt Katona & Sridhar Narayanan & Jiwoong Shin & Kenneth C Wilbur, 2019. "Inefficiencies in Digital Advertising Markets," Papers 1912.09012, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    3. Daniel Zantedeschi & Eleanor McDonnell Feit & Eric T. Bradlow, 2017. "Measuring Multichannel Advertising Response," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2706-2728, August.
    4. Pradeep Chintagunta & Dominique M. Hanssens & John R. Hauser, 2016. "Editorial—Marketing Science and Big Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 341-342, May.
    5. Ron Berman, 2018. "Beyond the Last Touch: Attribution in Online Advertising," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 771-792, September.
    6. Lukáš Kakalejč & Jozef Bucko & Paulo A. A. Resende & Martina Ferencova, 2018. "Multichannel Marketing Attribution Using Markov Chains," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 7(1), pages 49-60, February.
    7. Tesary Lin & Sanjog Misra, 2020. "The Identity Fragmentation Bias," Papers 2008.12849, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.

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