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Credit rationing, institutions and local public debt

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Gallardo Del Angel

    (Universidad Veracruzana, México)

  • Yiwen Xu

    (Morrison Insurance Brokers Ltd., Canada)

Abstract

Este trabajo presenta un modelo de racionamiento del crédito bajo los efectos de la ineficiencia judicial y la extracción criminal. En condiciones de baja calidad judicial y alta criminalidad, argumentamos que es más probable que los bancos presten al gobierno en lugar de a las empresas privadas. Argumentamos que el racionamiento crediticio incrementó la deuda pública local en México antes de la entrada en vigencia de la nueva ley de Disciplina Financiera para Estados y Municipios en 2016. Nuestro objetivo científico es explicar la oferta de crédito bancario al sector público local en México bajo condiciones de baja calidad institucional y racionamiento de crédito. Utilizamos análisis de regresión de panel y también aplicamos un modelo Autorregresivo de Rezagos Distribuidos para obtener las tasas de crecimiento a largo plazo. También utilizamos el análisis de Clusters para clasificar los estados de México en términos de su deuda, morosidad en el sector industrial, índices de delincuencia e ineficiencia judicial. Nuestro análisis empírico muestra que la ineficiencia judicial y la criminalidad indujeron mayores montos de préstamos bancarios a los gobiernos estatales durante el período de 2004 a 2016. También encontramos que los incumplimientos financieros en el sector industrial también aumentaron el monto de los préstamos bancarios a los gobiernos locales en México, lo que puede explicar en parte que el crédito racionado se redirecciona al sector público. Argumentamos que mantener baja la calidad de las instituciones puede inducir mayores préstamos bancarios a los estados, por lo que podría haber pocos incentivos para mejorar el poder judicial y la seguridad pública. La recomendación es mejorar la eficiencia judicial y disminuir la criminalidad para reducir el racionamiento del crédito y asegurar la estabilidad de la deuda pública local en el largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Gallardo Del Angel & Yiwen Xu, 2023. "Credit rationing, institutions and local public debt," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, Abril - J.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:18:y:2023:i:2:p:2
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    File URL: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/749
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Racionamiento de crédito; criminalidad; eficiencia judicial; deuda pública;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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