Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Neural Network Linear Forecasts for Stock Returns

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kanas, Angelos
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We examine the out-of-sample performance of monthly returns forecasts for the Dow Jones and the FT, using a linear and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The comparison of out-of-sample forecasts is done on the basis of directional accuracy, using the Pesaran and Timmermann (1992) test, and forecast encompassing, using the Clements and Hendry (1998) approach. While both models perform badly in terms of predicting the directional change of the two indices, the ANN forecasts can explain the forecast errors of the linear model while the linear model cannot explain the forecast errors of the ANN for both indices. Thus, the ANN forecasts are preferable to linear forecasts, indicating that the inclusion of nonlinear terms in the relation between stock returns and fundamentals is important in out-of-sample forecasting. This conclusion is consistent with the view that the underlying relation between stock returns and fundamentals is nonlinear. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jtoc?ID=15416
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 245-54

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:3:p:245-54

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

    Order Information:
    Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2010. "Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 49-58, January.
    2. Tseng, Chih-Hsiung & Cheng, Sheng-Tzong & Wang, Yi-Hsien & Peng, Jin-Tang, 2008. "Artificial neural network model of the hybrid EGARCH volatility of the Taiwan stock index option prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3192-3200.
    3. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    4. Shively, Philip A., 2003. "The nonlinear dynamics of stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 505-517.
    5. Edirisinghe, N.C.P. & Zhang, X., 2007. "Generalized DEA model of fundamental analysis and its application to portfolio optimization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3311-3335, November.
    6. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2006. "Regime switching and artificial neural network forecasting of the Cyprus Stock Exchange daily returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 371-383.
    7. Shively, Philip A., 2007. "Asymmetric temporary and permanent stock-price innovations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 120-130, January.
    8. Cai, Charlie X. & Kyaw, Khine & Zhang, Qi, 2012. "Stock index return forecasting: The information of the constituents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 72-74.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Are the Australian and New Zealand stock prices nonlinear with a unit root?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(18), pages 2161-2166.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:3:p:245-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.