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Anticipating Tax Changes: Evidence from the Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform of 2005

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Author Info
Seppo Kari
Hanna Karikallio
Jukka Pirttilä

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Abstract

Using register-based panel data covering all Finnish firms from 1999 to 2004, we examine how corporations anticipated the 2005 dividend tax increase via changes in their dividend and investment policies. The Finnish capital and corporate income tax reform of 2005 creates a useful opportunity to measure this behaviour, since it involves exogenous variation in the tax treatment of different types of firms. The estimation results reveal that those firms that anticipated a dividend tax hike increased their dividend payouts in a statistically significant way. This increase was not accompanied by a reduction in investment activities, but rather was associated with increased indebtedness in non-listed firms. The results also suggest that the timing of dividend distributions probably offsets much of the potential for increased dividend tax revenue following the reform. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2008.00072.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its journal Fiscal Studies.

Volume (Year): 29 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 167-196
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:29:y:2008:i:2:p:167-196

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tobias Lindhe & Jan Södersten & Ann Öberg, 2004. "Economic Effects of Taxing Different Organizational Forms under the Nordic Dual Income Tax," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 469-485, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert A Moffitt & Mark Wilhelm, 2000. "Taxation and the Labor Supply - Decisions of the Affluent," Economics Working Paper Archive 414, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  3. Luis Alvarez & Vesa Kanniainen & Jan Södersten, 1999. "Why is the Corporation Tax Not Neutral?. Anticipated Tax Reform, Investment Spurts and Corporate Borrowing," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 56(3/4), pages 285-, July.
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  4. Roger Gordon & Martin Dietz, 2006. "Dividends and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 12292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Steve Bond & Michael Devereux & Alexander Klemm, 2005. "Dissecting dividend decisions: some clues about the effects of dividend taxation from recent UK reforms," IFS Working Papers W05/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  6. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2004. "Do Dividend Payments Respond to Taxes? Preliminary Evidence from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," NBER Working Papers 10572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hartman, David G., 1985. "Tax policy and foreign direct investment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-121, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Seppo Kari & Hanna Karikallio, 2007. "Tax Treatment of Dividends and Capital Gains and the Dividend Decision Under Dual Income Tax," Discussion Papers 416, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Auerbach, Alan J, 1989. "Tax Reform and Adjustment Costs: The Impact on Investment and Market Value," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 939-62, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Corporate Behavior: Evidence from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(3), pages 791-833, August.
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  11. Anton Korinek & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2008. "Dividend Taxation and Intertemporal Tax Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 13858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett, 2005. "The 2003 Dividend Tax Cuts and the Value of the Firm: An Event Study," NBER Working Papers 11449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jeffrey R. Brown & Nellie Liang & Scott Weisbenner, 2006. "Executive financial incentives and payout policy: firm responses to the 2003 dividend tax cut," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ville Mälkönen, 2008. "Optimal Public Procurement Contracts Under a Soft Budget Constraint," Discussion Papers 464, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  2. Marja Riihelä & Risto Sullström & Ilpo Suoniemi, 2008. "Tax Progressivity and Recent Evolution of the Finnish Income Inequality," Discussion Papers 460, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  3. Ossi Korkeamäki & Tomi Kyyrä, 2008. "A Distributional Analysis of Displacement Costs in an Economic Depression and Recovery," Discussion Papers 465, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  4. Elina Berghäll, 2008. "Revealing Agglomeration Economies with Stochastic Frontier Modelling in the Finnish ICT Industry," Discussion Papers 435, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
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