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Informed Trading of Futures Markets During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the VPIN

Author

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  • Yen-Hsien Lee
  • Wen-Chien Liu
  • Chia-Lin Hsieh

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of informed trading on futures returns during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. To precisely capture the informed trading in the highly volatile market during this period, we adopt the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) of Easley, Hvidkjaer and O¡¯Hara (2012) as our main measurement for informed trading. Besides, we also use a unique transaction dataset with investor identity to classify investors into domestic and foreign institutional investors, which the foreign institutional investors are supposed to be characterized by a higher degree of informed trading. Our empirical results show that the VPIN of foreign institutional investors has indeed significantly positive impacts on futures returns at the individual level. By contrast, the effect of the VPIN of domestic institutional investors on futures returns is only significant on Wednesdays, which could be seen as a special kind of day-of-the-week effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Yen-Hsien Lee & Wen-Chien Liu & Chia-Lin Hsieh, 2017. "Informed Trading of Futures Markets During the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the VPIN," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 123-132, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:9:p:123-132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lai, Hung-Cheng & Wang, Kuan-Min, 2014. "Relationship between the trading behavior of three institutional investors and Taiwan Stock Index futures returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 156-165.
    3. Yan, Zhipeng & Cheng, Lee-Young & Zhao, Yan & Huang, Chung-Yuan, 2016. "Daily short covering activity and the weekend effect: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-184.
    4. David Easley & Marcos M. López de Prado & Maureen O'Hara, 2012. "Flow Toxicity and Liquidity in a High-frequency World," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1457-1493.
    5. Xu, Feng & Wan, Difang, 2015. "The impacts of institutional and individual investors on the price discovery in stock index futures market: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 221-231.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Haijun & Xue, Feng, 2021. "Analysis of stock market volatility: Adjusted VPIN with high-frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 210-222.
    2. Yildiz, Serhat & Van Ness, Bonnie & Van Ness, Robert, 2020. "VPIN, liquidity, and return volatility in the U.S. equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VPIN; day-of-the-week effect; GARCH; futures market; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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