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The Future of Employment: Evaluating Impact of STI Foresight Exercises

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  • Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca

Abstract

The present paper addresses the impact of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) Foresight and the resulting STI policy thereof on the critical issue of future industry studies, the demand for employment. The impact evaluation exercise relating STI Foresight and employment proposed here converges and integrates different scientific sectors such as the interdependence between employment and welfare framework; the role and weight of technology change to employment dimension; the prospects of emerging and future technologies impacting employment in future industry; the contribution of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies to promoting the generation and real application of new technologies. The paper follows the premise that STI Foresight, as well as Future Technology Analysis, offer a robust basis for the elaboration and monitoring of STI policies with anticipatory intelligence. The core of the paper is dedicated to address the main question of how to identify and choose variables and indicators able to reflect vectors towards the future of employment. The selected vectors are referred to cross effects, trends, and time scales. As far the relationship of technology and employment is concerned, the paper examines cross effect impacts resulting from an input-output analysis, trends indicated in Future Technology Analysis, and time scaling of the technology lifecycle. These parameters are meant to constitute the basic elements for impact evaluation algorithms. In this connection, the paper proposes concepts, measurement techniques, and methods for the evaluation of foresight exercises influencing future changes on employment. Linking policy-making, Foresight, and specific future-looking themes, the paper offers building blocks for constructing standards for the evaluation of foresight exercises.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca, 2017. "The Future of Employment: Evaluating Impact of STI Foresight Exercises," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 11(4), pages 9-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:11:y:2017:i:4:p:9-22
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    File URL: https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/data/2018/01/09/1160537639/1-Fonseca-9-22.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flavio Calvino & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2016. "The Innovation-Employment nexus: a critical survey of theory and empirics," LEM Papers Series 2016/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1994. "Growth and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 477-494.
    3. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & Matthias Weber, 2010. "The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 91-104, June.
    4. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
    5. Ben Martin, 2010. "Science Policy Research: Having an Impact on Policy?," Seminar Briefing 000197, Office of Health Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liudmila Samoilova & Dmitry Rodionov, 2022. "Production Function Based on Input–Output and Growth Rate Indicators as a Tool for Assessment of Innovation Climate in Russian Regions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-28, November.
    2. Artjom Rafaelevich Nagimov & Elvir Munirovich Akhmetshin & Valeriy Pavlovich Slanov & Raisa Nikolaevna Shpakova & Mikhail Prokopievich Solomonov & Dmitry Pavlovich Il'yaschenko, 2018. "Foresight Technologies in the Formation of a Sustainable Regional Development Strategy," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 741-752.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    STI policy; foresight; new technologies; impact assessment; evaluation; employment; technology change; future industry; indicators; computerization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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