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Are Rainfall and Temperature Really Changing? Farmer’s Perceptions, Meteorological Data, and Policy Implications in the Tanzanian Semi-Arid Zone

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  • Msafiri Y. Mkonda

    (Centre of Excellence for Soil Biology, College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    Department of Physical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro 3038, Tanzania)

  • Xinhua He

    (Centre of Excellence for Soil Biology, College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley 6009, Australia)

Abstract

Although various climate models, statistical crop models and economic simulations have been established to determine the level of farmers’ vulnerability, there has been little systematic assessment of farmers’ perception towards climate change in association with meteorological analyses and policy implications in Tanzania. The results from this assessment will enhance the formation of robust policies that improve resilient livelihoods and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability. This paper seeks to (i) reveal the farmers’ perception on variation, change of rainfall, and temperature in the Tanzanian semi-arid area; (ii) depict meteorological evidence for the perceived rainfall and temperature changes; (iii) assess the policy perception and responses for the changing climate; and (iv) discuss the correlation between farmers’ perception and meteorological data. Household surveys, informative interviews and discussions were employed during data collection. The Mann-Kendall Test and SPSS (version 20) were used for climate data analyses, while qualitative data were thematically analyzed. The results showed that from 1980 to 2015 the mean annual rainfall decreased ( R 2 = 0.21) while temperature increased (R 2 = 0.30). Even though majority farmers agreed with these results, they had not yet taken serious measures to curb the situation. Besides, Agricultural Policy has lightly addressed and enforced the implementations of adaptation strategies to reduce climate impacts and vulnerability. Thereby, creation of awareness and intensification of climate adaptation strategies is needed at both farm and policy level.

Suggested Citation

  • Msafiri Y. Mkonda & Xinhua He, 2017. "Are Rainfall and Temperature Really Changing? Farmer’s Perceptions, Meteorological Data, and Policy Implications in the Tanzanian Semi-Arid Zone," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-16, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:8:p:1412-:d:107778
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang Hong & Msafiri Y. Mkonda & Xinhua He, 2018. "Conservation Agriculture for Environmental Sustainability in A Semiarid Agroecological Zone under Climate Change Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Cristian Rogério Foguesatto & Felipe Dalzotto Artuzo & Edson Talamini & João Armando Dessimon Machado, 2020. "Understanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Msafiri Y. Mkonda & Xinhua He, 2017. "Yields of the Major Food Crops: Implications to Food Security and Policy in Tanzania’s Semi-Arid Agro-Ecological Zone," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Venkatesh Paramesh & Parveen Kumar & Mohammad Shamim & Natesan Ravisankar & Vadivel Arunachalam & Arun Jyoti Nath & Trivesh Mayekar & Raghuveer Singh & Ashisa K. Prusty & Racharla Solomon Rajkumar & A, 2022. "Integrated Farming Systems as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change: Case Studies from Diverse Agro-Climatic Zones of India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Bagus Setiabudi Wiwoho & Ike Sari Astuti & Purwanto Purwanto & Ifan Deffinika & Imam Abdul Gani Alfarizi & Hetty Rahmawati Sucahyo & Randhiki Gusti & Mochammad Tri Herwanto & Gilang Aulia Herlambang, 2023. "Assessing long-term rainfall trends and changes in a tropical watershed Brantas, Indonesia: an approach for quantifying the agreement among satellite-based rainfall data, ground rainfall data, and sma," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2835-2862, July.

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