IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i9p7636-d1140647.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

100 Years of Land-Use and Land-Cover Data: What Has Been the Effect of Spatial Planning in Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Change?

Author

Listed:
  • Raquel Faria de Deus

    (Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • José António Tenedório

    (História, Territórios e Comunidades, History, Territories and Communities, Hub at NOVA FCSH for the Centre for Functional Ecology—Science for People & the Planet, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Denise Pumain

    (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, 191 rue Saint Jacques, 75005 Paris, France)

  • Jorge Rocha

    (Centre of Geographical Studies (CEG), Associate Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning (IGOT), Universidade de Lisboa, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Margarida Pereira

    (Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals require us to rethink spatial planning policies’ effectiveness. This article proposes a reproducible method for assessing the effect of past planning practices and simulating future land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes with a Cellular Automata model. The originality of our approach is to systematically compare observed changes in LULC with the planning rules in force over almost a century of evolution. A quasi-exhaustive database was constructed at a very fine spatial resolution for the municipality of Portimão (Southern Portugal), including the location and changes of LULC categories, and the planning rules of the corresponding time period on nine dates between 1947 and 2018. The quantified measurement of the actual effect of planning rules enables us to identify other determinants of the evolution. Findings reveal that the policies established by the local government—which aimed to foster well-planned comprehensive urban areas—were not as effective as intended. The quantified discrepancies between planning recommendations and observed evolution help to simulate which LULC scenarios could be designed to reach the expected result in future planning policies. Our assessment method could be applied in other urban and tourist regions where land artificialization exerts strong pressure on the environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Raquel Faria de Deus & José António Tenedório & Denise Pumain & Jorge Rocha & Margarida Pereira, 2023. "100 Years of Land-Use and Land-Cover Data: What Has Been the Effect of Spatial Planning in Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Change?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7636-:d:1140647
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/9/7636/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/9/7636/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Megersa Kebede Leta & Tamene Adugna Demissie & Jens Tränckner, 2021. "Modeling and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Dynamics Based on Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Nashe Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Mingarro, Mario & Lobo, Jorge M., 2023. "European National Parks protect their surroundings but not everywhere: A study using land use/land cover dynamics derived from CORINE Land Cover data," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Daunt, Ana Beatriz Pierri & Inostroza, Luis & Hersperger, Anna M., 2021. "The role of spatial planning in land change: An assessment of urban planning and nature conservation efficiency at the southeastern coast of Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Marco Zitti & Carlotta Ferrara & Luigi Perini & Margherita Carlucci & Luca Salvati, 2015. "Long-Term Urban Growth and Land Use Efficiency in Southern Europe: Implications for Sustainable Land Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Padeiro, Miguel, 2014. "The influence of transport infrastructures on land-use conversion decisions within municipal plans," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(1), pages 79-93.
    6. Eric Koomen & Piet Rietveld & Ton Nijs, 2008. "Modelling land-use change for spatial planning support," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-10, March.
    7. Teresa Santos & Raquel Deus & Jorge Rocha & José António Tenedório, 2021. "Assessing Sustainable Urban Development Trends in a Dynamic Tourist Coastal Area Using 3D Spatial Indicators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    8. Ilaria Zambon & Pere Serra & Silvia Pili & Vincenzo Bernardini & Carlotta Ferrara & Luca Salvati, 2018. "A New Approach to Land-Use Structure: Patch Perimeter Metrics as a Spatial Analysis Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Yizhou Wu & Peilei Fan & Bo Li & Zutao Ouyang & Yong Liu & Heyuan You, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Planning Control on Urban Growth: Evidence from Hangzhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-24, May.
    10. Federico Amato & Biagio Antonio Maimone & Federico Martellozzo & Gabriele Nolè & Beniamino Murgante, 2016. "The Effects of Urban Policies on the Development of Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-22, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rosa Rivieccio & Lorenzo Sallustio & Massimo Paolanti & Matteo Vizzarri & Marco Marchetti, 2017. "Where Land Use Changes Occur: Using Soil Features to Understand the Economic Trends in Agricultural Lands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Ilaria Zambon & Pere Serra & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati, 2018. "Fallow Land, Recession and Socio-Demographic Local Contexts: Recent Dynamics in a Mediterranean Urban Fringe," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Zuzana Pucherová & Regina Mišovičová & Gabriel Bugár & Henrich Grežo, 2021. "Changes in Landscape Structure in the Municipalities of the Nitra District (Slovak Republic) Due to Expanding Suburbanization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Rosanna Salvia & Pere Serra & Ilaria Zambon & Massimo Cecchini & Luca Salvati, 2018. "In-Between Sprawl and Neo-Rurality: Sparse Settlements and the Evolution of Socio-Demographic Local Context in a Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, October.
    5. Esposito, Piero & Patriarca, Fabrizio & Salvati, Luca, 2018. "Tertiarization and land use change: The case of Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 80-86.
    6. Luis Camarero & Renato Miguel Carmo & Sofía Santos, 2020. "Condiciones ambientales y diferenciación social en los patrones de movilidad: el caso de las desigualdades de género en el Área Metropolitana de Lisboa," Revista de Estudios Regionales, Universidades Públicas de Andalucía, vol. 0(y), pages 145-172.
    7. Maeda, Eduardo Eiji & Clark, Barnaby J.F. & Pellikka, Petri & Siljander, Mika, 2010. "Modelling agricultural expansion in Kenya's Eastern Arc Mountains biodiversity hotspot," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 609-620, November.
    8. Rosanna Salvia & Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Sirio Cividino & Luca Salvati & Giovanni Quaranta, 2020. "From Rural Spaces to Peri-Urban Districts: Metropolitan Growth, Sparse Settlements and Demographic Dynamics in a Mediterranean Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Eduard J. Alvarez-Palau & Jordi Martí-Henneberg & Jorge Solanas-Jiménez, 2019. "Urban Growth and Long-Term Transformations in Spanish Cities Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century: A Methodology to Determine Changes in Urban Density," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-22, December.
    10. Marcela Prokopová & Luca Salvati & Gianluca Egidi & Ondřej Cudlín & Renata Včeláková & Radek Plch & Pavel Cudlín, 2019. "Envisioning Present and Future Land-Use Change under Varying Ecological Regimes and Their Influence on Landscape Stability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-24, August.
    11. Marcela Prokopová & Ondřej Cudlín & Renata Včeláková & Szabolcs Lengyel & Luca Salvati & Pavel Cudlín, 2018. "Latent Drivers of Landscape Transformation in Eastern Europe: Past, Present and Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, August.
    12. Dong Chen & Rongrong Liu & Maoxian Zhou, 2023. "Delineation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Habitat Quality and Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Weiyuan County in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    13. Andrew Allan & Ali Soltani & Mohammad Hamed Abdi & Melika Zarei, 2022. "Driving Forces behind Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Systematic and Bibliometric Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    14. Luca Salvati & Federico Benassi, 2021. "Rise (and Decline) of European Migrants in Greece: Exploring Spatial Determinants of Residential Mobility (1988–2017), with Special Focus on Older Ages," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 599-613, June.
    15. Zambon, Ilaria & Serra, Pere & Grigoriadis, Efstathios & Carlucci, Margherita & Salvati, Luca, 2017. "Emerging urban centrality: An entropy-based indicator of polycentric development and economic growth," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 365-371.
    16. Dan Yuan & Runhan Wu & Dong Li & Lei Zhu & Yaguang Pan, 2023. "Spatial Patterns Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Cultural Resources in the Yellow River National Cultural Park, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Xin Wu & Peng Cui, 2016. "A Study of the Time–Space Evolution Characteristics of Urban–Rural Integration Development in a Mountainous Area Based on ESDA-GIS: The Case of the Qinling-Daba Mountains in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-17, October.
    18. Luca Salvati & Agostino Ferrara & Ilaria Tombolini & Roberta Gemmiti & Andrea Colantoni & Luigi Perini, 2015. "Desperately Seeking Sustainability: Urban Shrinkage, Land Consumption and Regional Planning in a Mediterranean Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Lisha Pan & Hangang Hu & Xin Jing & Yang Chen & Guan Li & Zhongguo Xu & Yuefei Zhuo & Xueqi Wang, 2022. "The Impacts of Regional Cooperation on Urban Land-Use Efficiency: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, June.
    20. Merkebe Getachew Demissie & Lina Kattan, 2022. "Understanding the temporal and spatial interactions between transit ridership and urban land-use patterns: an exploratory study," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 385-417, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7636-:d:1140647. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.