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Future Scenarios of Bioclimatic Viticulture Indices in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights into Sustainable Vineyard Management in a Changing Climate

Author

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  • Karam Alsafadi

    (School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Shuoben Bi

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Bashar Bashir

    (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, P.O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia)

  • Abdullah Alsalman

    (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, P.O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia)

  • Amit Kumar Srivastava

    (Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, 53111 Bonn, Germany)

Abstract

The evaluation of bioclimatic viticulture indices (BVIs) zones, similar to any other crop, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the spatial variability of climate data. This study focuses on assessing the suitability of BVIs in the Jabal Al Arab region, a significant viticulture area in the Eastern Mediterranean. The aim is to analyze four temperature-based bioclimatic indices and the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) to map their patterns and spatial variation across the region under climate change scenarios. Daily temperature data from 15 meteorological stations and 57 rain gauges spanning 1984–2014 were utilized, along with downscaled future scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2)) for 2016–2100. Additionally, statistical analysis and hybrid interpolation (regression-kriging) were employed to accurately map the BVIs throughout the region. The results reveal substantial spatial variability in Jabal Al Arab’s climate, with heat accumulation and the hydrothermal index during the growing season significantly influenced by elevation and distance to the seacoast. Additionally, the viticulture zones vary based on the specific index used and the projected future climate scenarios compared to the current climate. Climate change projections indicate a trend toward warmer conditions in the future. Under the RCP scenarios, the region can be categorized into up to three bioclimatic classes for certain indices, in contrast to the current climate with six classes. These findings offer valuable insights into viticulture suitability within each climatic region and facilitate the identification of homogeneous zones. By employing consistent bioclimatic indices and advanced hybrid interpolation techniques, this study enables meaningful comparisons of Jabal Al Arab with other viticulture regions worldwide. Such information is crucial for selecting suitable grapevine varieties and assessing the potential for grape production in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Karam Alsafadi & Shuoben Bi & Bashar Bashir & Abdullah Alsalman & Amit Kumar Srivastava, 2023. "Future Scenarios of Bioclimatic Viticulture Indices in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights into Sustainable Vineyard Management in a Changing Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:15:p:11740-:d:1206434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giovanni Gentilesco & Antonio Coletta & Luigi Tarricone & Vittorio Alba, 2023. "Bioclimatic Characterization Relating to Temperature and Subsequent Future Scenarios of Vine Growing across the Apulia Region in Southern Italy," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Helder Fraga & Joaquim G. Pinto & João A. Santos, 2019. "Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 179-193, January.
    3. Roberto Valori & Corrado Costa & Simone Figorilli & Luciano Ortenzi & Rossella Manganiello & Roberto Ciccoritti & Francesca Cecchini & Massimo Morassut & Noemi Bevilacqua & Giorgio Colatosti & Giovann, 2023. "Advanced Forecasting Modeling to Early Predict Powdery Mildew First Appearance in Different Vines Cultivars," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, February.
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