IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i14p8491-d860154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changing Climatic Scenarios Anticipate Dwindling of Suitable Habitats for Endemic Species of Himalaya—Predictions of Ensemble Modelling Using Aconitum heterophyllum as a Model Plant

Author

Listed:
  • Zishan Ahmad Wani

    (Department of Botany, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri 185234, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Qamer Ridwan

    (Department of Botany, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri 185234, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Sajid Khan

    (Department of Botany, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri 185234, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Shreekar Pant

    (Centre for Biodiversity Studies, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri 185234, Jammu and Kashmir, India)

  • Sazada Siddiqui

    (Department of Biology, College of Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia)

  • Mahmoud Moustafa

    (Department of Biology, College of Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia)

  • Ahmed Ezzat Ahmad

    (Department of Biology, College of Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Theriogenology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, South Valley University, Qena 83523, Egypt)

  • Habab M. Yassin

    (Department of Biology, College of Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

In the changing climatic conditions, species distribution modelling is considered as a key strategy to estimate the probable influence of climatic variabilities on the habitat ranges of any species. The present study explores the potential distribution of Aconitum heterophyllum under current and future climatic scenarios. The results unfold that the distribution of this endemic species is governed significantly by bio12, i.e., Annual Precipitation. Ensemble modelling predicted that higher altitudes of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh are suitable habitats for A. heterophyllum . However, the future climatic modelling revealed that there will be a significant decrease in the suitable habitats for A. heterophyllum . Most of the shrinkage of habitats is predicted to occur within the time period of 2050, which seriously challenges their survival. The present study recommends an urgent need to frame a pertinent conservation and management policy for Aconitum heterophyllum and will act as a framework for planning such a policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zishan Ahmad Wani & Qamer Ridwan & Sajid Khan & Shreekar Pant & Sazada Siddiqui & Mahmoud Moustafa & Ahmed Ezzat Ahmad & Habab M. Yassin, 2022. "Changing Climatic Scenarios Anticipate Dwindling of Suitable Habitats for Endemic Species of Himalaya—Predictions of Ensemble Modelling Using Aconitum heterophyllum as a Model Plant," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:14:p:8491-:d:860154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/8491/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/8491/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sajid Khan & Kailash S. Gaira & Mohd Asgher & Susheel Verma & Shreekar Pant & Dinesh K. Agrawala & Saud Alamri & Manzer H. Siddiqui & Mahipal Singh Kesawat, 2023. "Temperature Induced Flowering Phenology of Olea ferruginea Royle: A Climate Change Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    2. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    4. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    6. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    7. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    8. Mohamed Kefi & Binaya Kumar Mishra & Yoshifumi Masago & Kensuke Fukushi, 2020. "Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2461-2487, December.
    9. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    10. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2019. "The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO 2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Ricky P. Laureta & Ric Ryan H. Regalado & Ermar B. De La Cruz, 2021. "Climate vulnerability scenario of the agricultural sector in the Bicol River Basin, Philippines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-18, September.
    12. Bucchignani Edoardo & Mercogliano Paola & Montesarchio Myriam & Zollo Alessandra Lucia, 2017. "Numerical Simulation of the Period 1971–2100 over the Mediterranean Area with a Regional Model, Scenario SRES-A1B," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Avri Eitan, 2021. "Promoting Renewable Energy to Cope with Climate Change—Policy Discourse in Israel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.
    14. John M. DeCicco, 2018. "Methodological Issues Regarding Biofuels and Carbon Uptake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    15. Pedro Pérez-Cutillas & Pedro Baños Páez & Isabel Banos-González, 2020. "Variability of Water Balance under Climate Change Scenarios. Implications for Sustainability in the Rhône River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Aikaterini Papapostolou & Charikleia Karakosta & Kalliopi-Anastasia Kourti & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2019. "Supporting Europe’s Energy Policy Towards a Decarbonised Energy System: A Comparative Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-26, July.
    17. H. Oğuz Çoban & Ömer K. Örücü & E. Seda Arslan, 2020. "MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
    18. Diop, Bassirou & Blanchard, Fabian & Sanz, Nicolas, 2018. "Mangrove increases resiliency of the French Guiana shrimp fishery facing global warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 27-37.
    19. Sabina Thaler & Herbert Formayer & Gerhard Kubu & Miroslav Trnka & Josef Eitzinger, 2021. "Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-39, October.
    20. Ruda Zhang & Patrick Wingo & Rodrigo Duran & Kelly Rose & Jennifer Bauer & Roger Ghanem, 2020. "Environmental Economics and Uncertainty: Review and a Machine Learning Outlook," Papers 2004.11780, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:14:p:8491-:d:860154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.