IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i9p5183-d549457.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying Unwanted Conditions through Chaotic Area Determination in the Context of Indonesia’s Economic Resilience at the City Level

Author

Listed:
  • Yuyun Hidayat

    (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

  • Titi Purwandari

    (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

  • Subiyanto

    (Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Fishery and Marine Science, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

  • Sukono

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia)

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to determine the unwanted condition as a strategic criterion in measuring the economic resilience of a city. A new approach in determining economic resilience was developed to overcome the weaknesses of the index method commonly used internationally. Based on the output of this research, the development priority program for each city becomes distinctive depending on the status of the city’s economic resilience. Quality improvement programs are used for cities that do not have resilience and retention programs for cities that already have economic resilience. Five piecewise linear regression parameters are applied to identify a statistical model between Income per capita and Pc as a concern variable and modifier variable, and a Z . Model is tested massively involving all 514 cities in Indonesia from 2015 to 2019, covering the components of the modifier variable: local revenue (PAD), poverty, unemployment and concern variable; GRDP and population. The value of the Fraction of variance unexplained (FVU) of the model is 40%. This value is obtained using the Rosenbrock Pattern Search estimation method with a maximum number of iterations of 200 and a convergence criterion of 0.0001. The FVU area is a condition of uncertainty and unpredictability, so that people will avoid this area. This condition is chaotic and declared as an unwanted condition. The chaotic area is located in the value of U Z less than IDR 5,097,592 and P c < P c ( U Z ) = 27,816,310.68, and thus the coordinates of the chaotic boundary area is (5,097,592: 27,816,310.68). FVU as a chaotic area is used as the basis for stating whether or not a city falls into unwanted conditions. A city is claimed not to be economically resilient if the modifier variable Z is in a chaotic boundary.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuyun Hidayat & Titi Purwandari & Subiyanto & Sukono, 2021. "Identifying Unwanted Conditions through Chaotic Area Determination in the Context of Indonesia’s Economic Resilience at the City Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:9:p:5183-:d:549457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/9/5183/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/9/5183/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2010. "Complexity Thinking and Evolutionary Economic Geography," Chapters, in: Ron Boschma & Ron Martin (ed.), The Handbook of Evolutionary Economic Geography, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Rolf Pendall & Kathryn A. Foster & Margaret Cowell, 2009. "Resilience and regions: building understanding of the metaphor," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(1), pages 71-84.
    3. Andy Pike & Stuart Dawley & John Tomaney, 2010. "Resilience, adaptation and adaptability," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 3(1), pages 59-70.
    4. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley & Ben Gardiner & Peter Tyler, 2016. "How Regions React to Recessions: Resilience and the Role of Economic Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 561-585, April.
    5. Krista Danielle S. Yu & Kathleen B. Aviso & Joost R. Santos & Raymond R. Tan, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Lockdowns: A Persistent Inoperability Input-Output Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Liangang Li & Pingyu Zhang & Xin Li, 2019. "Regional Economic Resilience of the Old Industrial Bases in China—A Case Study of Liaoning Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, January.
    7. Marco Modica & Aura Reggiani, 2015. "Spatial Economic Resilience: Overview and Perspectives," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 211-233, June.
    8. Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
    9. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2014. "Economic resilience: definition and measurement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6852, The World Bank.
    10. Florin Oprea & Mihaela Onofrei & Dan Lupu & Georgeta Vintila & Gigel Paraschiv, 2020. "The Determinants of Economic Resilience. The Case of Eastern European Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-11, May.
    11. Brosse, Nicolas & Durmus, Alain & Moulines, Éric & Sabanis, Sotirios, 2019. "The tamed unadjusted Langevin algorithm," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(10), pages 3638-3663.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xin Mai & Roger C. K. Chan, 2020. "Detecting the intellectual pathway of resilience thinking in urban and regional studies: A critical reflection on resilience literature," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 876-889, September.
    2. Jurgita Bruneckiene & Irena Pekarskiene & Oksana Palekiene & Zaneta Simanaviciene, 2019. "An Assessment of Socio-Economic Systems’ Resilience to Economic Shocks: The Case of Lithuanian Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Wenjing Cui & Jing Chen & Tao Xue & Huawen Shen, 2021. "The Economic Resilience Cycle Evolution and Spatial-Temporal Difference of Tourism Industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Kurikka, Heli & Grillitsch, Markus, 2020. "Resilience in the periphery: What an agency perspective can bring to the table," Papers in Innovation Studies 2020/7, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    5. Paolo Rizzi & Paola Graziano & Antonio Dallara, 2018. "A capacity approach to territorial resilience: the case of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 285-328, March.
    6. Elias Giannakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2021. "Spatial Connectivity and Regional Economic Resilience in Turbulent Times," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-12, October.
    7. Guozhu Li & Meichen Liu, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience: Evidence from Resource-Based Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    8. Guandong Song & Sheng Zhong & Liuguang Song, 2022. "Spatial Pattern Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors in County Economic Resilience in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Yingqi Zhu & Ying Wang & Tianxue Liu & Qi Sui, 2018. "Assessing macroeconomic recovery after a natural hazard based on ARIMA—a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1025-1038, April.
    10. Pontarollo, Nicola & Serpieri, Carolina, 2020. "A composite policy tool to measure territorial resilience capacity," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. George J. XANTHOS & Evangelos N. DULUFAKIS, 2023. "Measurement Approaches Of Regional Economic Resilience: A Literature Review," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 47-59, June.
    12. Yang Ban & Ying Wang & Xiaohong Chen & Liuqing Wei, 2022. "Synergistic Patterns of Urban Economic Efficiency and the Economic Resilience of the Harbin–Changchun Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Alessia Arcidiacono & Gianpiero Torrisi, 2022. "Decentralisation and Resilience: A Multidimensional Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-25, August.
    14. Pengyang Zhang & Yanmei Huang & Sipei Pan & Wanxu Chen & Hui Zhong & Ning Xu & Mingxing Zhong, 2022. "Does Resilience Exist in China’s Tourism Economy? From the Perspectives of Resistance and Recoverability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, August.
    15. Dinh, Huong & Pearson, Leonie, 2015. "Specifying community economic resilience - a framework for measurement," 2015 Conference (59th), February 10-13, 2015, Rotorua, New Zealand 202523, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    16. Wang, Xueli & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Xuerong & Fan, Fei, 2022. "The spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in China and its impact on urban economic resilience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Anastasios Kitsos & André Carrascal-Incera & Raquel Ortega-Argilés, 2019. "The Role of Embeddedness on Regional Economic Resilience: Evidence from the UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
    18. Lisa Gianmoena & Vicente Rios, 2018. "The Determinants of Resilience in European Regions During the Great Recession: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Discussion Papers 2018/235, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    19. Chacon-Hurtado, Davis & Kumar, Indraneel & Gkritza, Konstantina & Fricker, Jon D. & Beaulieu, Lionel J., 2020. "The role of transportation accessibility in regional economic resilience," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Francesca Silvia Rota & Marco Bagliani & Paolo Feletig, 2020. "Breaking the Black-Box of Regional Resilience: A Taxonomy Using a Dynamic Cumulative Shift-Share Occupational Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-27, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:9:p:5183-:d:549457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.