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Trade-Offs and Synergies of Multiple Ecosystem Services for Different Land Use Scenarios in the Yili River Valley, China

Author

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  • Mingjie Shi

    (College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China)

  • Hongqi Wu

    (College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China)

  • Xin Fan

    (School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Hongtao Jia

    (College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China)

  • Tong Dong

    (College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China)

  • Panxing He

    (College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China)

  • Muhammad Fahad Baqa

    (Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Pingan Jiang

    (College of Grass and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China)

Abstract

Environmental managers and policymakers increasingly discuss trade-offs between ecosystem services (ESs). However, few studies have used nonlinear models to provide scenario-specific land-use planning. This study determined the effects of different future land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios on ESs in the Yili River Valley, China, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergistic response characteristics. We simulated land-use changes in the Yili River Valley during 2020–2030 under three different scenarios using a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model—business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC). Subsequently, we evaluated the water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), and nutrient export (NE) ESs by combining the PLUS and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models, thus exploring multiple trade-offs among these four ESs at a regional scale. For the BAU scenario, there are some synergistic effects between WY and SR in the Yili River Valley, in addition to significant trade-off effects between CS and NE. For the ED scenario, the rapid expansion of cropland and constructed land is at the expense of forested grassland, leading to a significant decline in ESs. For the EC scenario, the model predicted that the cumulative regional net future carbon storage, cumulative water retention, and cumulative soil conservation would all increase due to ecological engineering and the revegetation of riparian zones and that formerly steep agricultural land can be effective in improving ESs. Meanwhile, the trade-off effect would be significantly weakened between CS and NE. These results can inform decision makers on specific sites where ecological engineering is implemented. Our findings can enhance stakeholders’ understanding of the interactions between ESs indicators in different scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingjie Shi & Hongqi Wu & Xin Fan & Hongtao Jia & Tong Dong & Panxing He & Muhammad Fahad Baqa & Pingan Jiang, 2021. "Trade-Offs and Synergies of Multiple Ecosystem Services for Different Land Use Scenarios in the Yili River Valley, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:3:p:1577-:d:492005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Binpin Gao & Yingmei Wu & Chen Li & Kejun Zheng & Yan Wu & Mengjiao Wang & Xin Fan & Shengya Ou, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Barrier Based on Terrain Gradients," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Jie Chen & Hui Fu & Shengtian Chen, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecosystem Service Value at the City Level from the Perspective of “Production–Living–Ecological” Spaces: A Case Study of Haikou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Ruei-Yuan Wang & Huina Cai & Lingkang Chen & Taohui Li, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in the GBA Based on PLUS–InVEST Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Wenwen Tang & Lihan Cui & Sheng Zheng & Wei Hu, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Shenzhen, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Yongge Li & Wei Liu & Qi Feng & Meng Zhu & Jutao Zhang & Linshan Yang & Xinwei Yin, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Services Value in the Hexi Regions, Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Shuo Yang & Hao Su, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    8. Zheng, Liang & Wang, Ying & Li, Jiangfeng, 2023. "Quantifying the spatial impact of landscape fragmentation on habitat quality: A multi-temporal dimensional comparison between the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Yellow River Basin of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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