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Performance Assessment for Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Models on Distinctive Water Uses in Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Kang-Min Koo

    (Graduate School of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea)

  • Kuk-Heon Han

    (Smart Water Grid Research Group, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea)

  • Kyung-Soo Jun

    (Graduate School of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea)

  • Gyumin Lee

    (Construction and Environmental Research Center, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea)

  • Jung-Sik Kim

    (Techwin Co., Ltd., Cheongju 28580, Korea)

  • Kyung-Taek Yum

    (Smart Water Grid Research Group, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea)

Abstract

It is crucial to forecast the water demand accurately for supplying water efficiently and stably in a water supply system. In particular, accurately forecasting short-term water demand helps in saving energy and reducing operating costs. With the introduction of the Smart Water Grid (SWG) in a water supply system, the amount of water consumption is obtained in real-time through a smart meter, which can be used for forecasting the short-term water demand. The models widely used for water demand forecasting include Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Radial Basis Function-Artificial Neural Network, Quantitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus, and Long Short-Term Memory. However, there is a lack of research on assessing the performance of models and forecasting the short-term water demand in the SWG demonstration plant. Therefore, in this study, the short-term water demand was forecasted for each model using the data collected from a smart meter, and the performance of each model was assessed. The Smart Water Grid Research Group installed a smart meter in block 112 located in YeongJong Island, Incheon, and the actual data used for operating the SWG demonstration plant were adopted. The performance of the model was assessed by using the Residual, Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Root Mean Square Error, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency, and Pearson Correlation Coefficient as indices. As a result of water demand forecasting, it is difficult to forecast water demand only by time and water consumption. Therefore, as the short-term water demand forecasting models using only time and the amount of water consumption have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of consumers, a water supply system can be managed more precisely if other factors (weather, customer behavior, etc.) influencing the water demand are applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang-Min Koo & Kuk-Heon Han & Kyung-Soo Jun & Gyumin Lee & Jung-Sik Kim & Kyung-Taek Yum, 2021. "Performance Assessment for Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Models on Distinctive Water Uses in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:11:p:6056-:d:563769
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrigo Lopez Farias & Vicenç Puig & Hector Rodriguez Rangel & Juan J. Flores, 2018. "Multi-Model Prediction for Demand Forecast in Water Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, March.
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    3. Wang, Yi & Gan, Dahua & Sun, Mingyang & Zhang, Ning & Lu, Zongxiang & Kang, Chongqing, 2019. "Probabilistic individual load forecasting using pinball loss guided LSTM," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 10-20.
    4. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
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    1. Azar Niknam & Hasan Khademi Zare & Hassan Hosseininasab & Ali Mostafaeipour & Manuel Herrera, 2022. "A Critical Review of Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Tools—What Method Should I Use?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-25, April.

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