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Sensitive Factors Identification and Scenario Simulation of Water Demand in the Arid Agricultural Area Based on the Socio-Economic-Environment Nexus

Author

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  • Weijing Ma

    (Faculty of Geography, Philipps-Universität Marburg, 35032 Marburg, Germany)

  • Lihong Meng

    (College of Geography and Environment Project, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, China)

  • Feili Wei

    (Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

  • Christian Opp

    (Faculty of Geography, Philipps-Universität Marburg, 35032 Marburg, Germany)

  • Dewei Yang

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China)

Abstract

Water scarcity has seriously threatened the sustainable development of Zhangjiakou City, an arid agricultural area in North China, and the ecological security of its neighboring areas. In this study, a system dynamics model is established based on variable sensitivity analysis and is employed to simulate water demand (2015–2035) in four designed alternative development scenarios in Zhangjiakou City. The results show that: (1) the variables related to irrigation farmland are the main driving factors of water demand, especially the area and water use quota. (2) The total water demand will rise continually in the current development scenario and economic priority scenario, and the proportion of agricultural water demand will drop to 67% and 63%, respectively. It will decline continually in the water-saving priority scenario and balanced development scenario, and the proportion of agricultural water demand will drop to 56% and 57%, respectively. (3) Water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP will fall to around 20 m 3 in 2035 in each scenario, indicating that the reduction of water demand only by slowing down economic growth cannot improve the efficiency of water use. The research results will be beneficial to extract feasible strategies and policies for balancing economic development and water conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Weijing Ma & Lihong Meng & Feili Wei & Christian Opp & Dewei Yang, 2020. "Sensitive Factors Identification and Scenario Simulation of Water Demand in the Arid Agricultural Area Based on the Socio-Economic-Environment Nexus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:10:p:3996-:d:357697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Linlin Wang & Rongchang Wang & Haiyan Yan, 2021. "System-Dynamics Modeling for Exploring the Impact of Industrial-Structure Adjustment on the Water Quality of the River Network in the Yangtze Delta Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-20, July.

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