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Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Melaku Bogale Fitawok

    (Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
    Department of Economics, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 3052, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia)

  • Ben Derudder

    (Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium)

  • Amare Sewnet Minale

    (Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia)

  • Steven Van Passel

    (Department of Engineering Management, University of Antwerp, B-2610 Wilrijk-Antwerp, Belgium)

  • Enyew Adgo

    (Department of Natural Resource Management, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia)

  • Jan Nyssen

    (Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium)

Abstract

The fast-paced urbanization of recent decades entails that many regions are facing seemingly uncontrolled land-use changes (LUCs) that go hand in hand with a range of environmental and socio-economic challenges. In this paper, we use an integrated cellular automata–Markov chain (CA–MC) model to analyze and predict the urban expansion of and its impact on LUC in the city of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. To this end, the research marshals high-resolution Landsat images of 1991, 2002, 2011, and 2018. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is then used to identify the biophysical and socioeconomic factors underlying the expansion in the research area. It is shown that, during the period of study, built-up areas are rapidly expanding in the face of an overall decline of the farmland and vegetation cover. Drawing on a model calibration for 2018, the research predicts the possible geographies of LUC in the Bahir Dar area for 2025, 2034, and 2045. It is predicted that the conversions of other land-use types into built-up areas will persist in the southern, southwestern, and northeastern areas of the sprawling city, which can mainly be traced back to the uneven geographies of road accessibility, proximity to the city center, and slope variables. We reflect on how our findings can be used to facilitate sustainable urban development and land-use policies in the Bahir Dar area.

Suggested Citation

  • Melaku Bogale Fitawok & Ben Derudder & Amare Sewnet Minale & Steven Van Passel & Enyew Adgo & Jan Nyssen, 2020. "Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:9:y:2020:i:4:p:115-:d:343503
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sumbo, Dennis Kamaanaa & Anane, George Kwadwo & Inkoom, Daniel Kweku Baah, 2023. "‘Peri-urbanisation and loss of arable land’: Indigenes’ farmland access challenges and adaptation strategies in Kumasi and Wa, Ghana," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Alireza Mohammadi & Behzad Kiani & Hassan Mahmoudzadeh & Robert Bergquist, 2023. "Pedestrian Road Traffic Accidents in Metropolitan Areas: GIS-Based Prediction Modelling of Cases in Mashhad, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, July.
    4. Getu, Kenu & Bhat, H Gangadhara, 2021. "Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of urban sprawl and growth pattern using geospatial technologies and landscape metrics in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Andrew Allan & Ali Soltani & Mohammad Hamed Abdi & Melika Zarei, 2022. "Driving Forces behind Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Systematic and Bibliometric Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Admasu, Wubante Fetene & Van Passel, Steven & Nyssen, Jan & Minale, Amare Sewnet & Tsegaye, Enyew Adgo, 2021. "Eliciting farmers’ preferences and willingness to pay for land use attributes in Northwest Ethiopia: A discrete choice experiment study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Wubante Fetene Admasu & Annelies Boerema & Jan Nyssen & Amare Sewnet Minale & Enyew Adgo Tsegaye & Steven Van Passel, 2020. "Uncovering Ecosystem Services of Expropriated Land: The Case of Urban Expansion in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Markos Mathewos & Semaria Moga Lencha & Misgena Tsegaye, 2022. "Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Future Predictions in the Matenchose Watershed, Rift Valley Basin, Using CA-Markov Simulation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-28, September.
    9. Jin, Hong & Li, Heping & Lee, Jia & Sun, Weitong, 2023. "Simulation analysis of rural land use using rate of change driven by population and economic dynamics - A case study of Huangguashan village in Chongqing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).

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