IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v475y2023ics0304380022003027.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation analysis of rural land use using rate of change driven by population and economic dynamics - A case study of Huangguashan village in Chongqing, China

Author

Listed:
  • Jin, Hong
  • Li, Heping
  • Lee, Jia
  • Sun, Weitong

Abstract

The conflicts between various types of land use in rural areas of China are becoming more and more obvious, therefore, how to more accurately simulate and predict the future land cover changes in rural areas has become an important topic of current academic research. In this research, the dynamic multi-year data was used to replace the static one-year data and brought into the future land use simulation (FLUS) model for the simulation of land use in Huangguashan village, Chongqing, China. The accuracy results of the two sets of simulations are compared in terms of accuracy kappa coefficient and Overall Accuracy (OA). Next, using the improved FLUS model, four different future development scenarios of priority ecological conservation, priority economic development, priority farmland conservation and priority integrated development were set up to simulate the land use data of Huangguashan village in 2030. The results of the research found that (1) the kappa coefficient and OA values were higher for the simulation of FLUS model using dynamic multi-year data. The simulation results are closer to the actual situation, especially the simulation enhancement effect is more obvious for the long-term; (2) by comparing the land use types of four different future development scenarios, it is suggested that Huangguashan village should adopt the integrated development priority scenario as the direction of future policy formulation and planning development in the future. This research can provide more effective scientific decision support and significance for governments to formulate multi-scheme rural land use development policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Hong & Li, Heping & Lee, Jia & Sun, Weitong, 2023. "Simulation analysis of rural land use using rate of change driven by population and economic dynamics - A case study of Huangguashan village in Chongqing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:475:y:2023:i:c:s0304380022003027
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380022003027
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110204?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Zeyang & Luan, Weixin & Zhang, Zhenchao & Su, Min, 2020. "Relationship between urban construction land expansion and population/economic growth in Liaoning Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. Ma, Wenqiu & Jiang, Guanghui & Zhang, Ruijuan & Li, Yuling & Jiang, Xiaoguang, 2018. "Achieving rural spatial restructuring in China: A suitable framework to understand how structural transitions in rural residential land differ across peri-urban interface?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 583-593.
    3. Jiang, Changjun & Li, Jintao & Liu, Jilai, 2022. "Does urbanization affect the gap between urban and rural areas? Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    4. Wickramasuriya, Rohan Chandralal & Bregt, Arnold K. & van Delden, Hedwig & Hagen-Zanker, Alex, 2009. "The dynamics of shifting cultivation captured in an extended Constrained Cellular Automata land use model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(18), pages 2302-2309.
    5. Dominique Prunetti & Alexandre Muzy & Eric Innocenti & Xavier Pieri, 2014. "Utility-based Multi-agent System with Spatial Interactions: The Case of Virtual Estate Development," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 271-299, March.
    6. Xia Li & Guangzhao Chen & Xiaoping Liu & Xun Liang & Shaojian Wang & Yimin Chen & Fengsong Pei & Xiaocong Xu, 2017. "A New Global Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Product at a 1-km Resolution for 2010 to 2100 Based on Human–Environment Interactions," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(5), pages 1040-1059, September.
    7. Stamatia Nasiakou & Michael Vrahnakis & Dimitrios Chouvardas & Georgios Mamanis & Vassiliki Kleftoyanni, 2022. "Land Use Changes for Investments in Silvoarable Agriculture Projected by the CLUE-S Spatio-Temporal Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Bowen Cai & Zhenfeng Shao & Shenghui Fang & Xiao Huang, 2022. "Quantifying Dynamic Coupling Coordination Degree of Human–Environmental Interactions during Urban–Rural Land Transitions of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, June.
    9. Zhou, Yang & Li, Xunhuan & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Land use change and driving factors in rural China during the period 1995-2015," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Tian, Fenghao & Li, Mingyu & Han, Xulong & Liu, Hui & Mo, Boxian, 2020. "A Production–Living–Ecological Space Model for Land-Use Optimisation: A case study of the core Tumen River region in China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 437(C).
    11. Zhao, Pengjun & Wan, Jie, 2021. "Land use and travel burden of residents in urban fringe and rural areas: An evaluation of urban-rural integration initiatives in Beijing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    12. Ruiqiu Pang & Ning Hu & Jingrui Zhou & Dongqi Sun & Hongying Ye, 2022. "Study on Eco-Environmental Effects of Land-Use Transitions and Their Influencing Factors in the Central and Southern Liaoning Urban Agglomeration: A Production–Living–Ecological Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Melaku Bogale Fitawok & Ben Derudder & Amare Sewnet Minale & Steven Van Passel & Enyew Adgo & Jan Nyssen, 2020. "Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, April.
    14. Xueru Zhang & Jie Wang & Wei Song & Fengfei Wang & Xing Gao & Lei Liu & Kun Dong & Dazhi Yang, 2022. "Decoupling Analysis between Rural Population Change and Rural Construction Land Changes in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Men, Dan & Pan, Jinghu, 2023. "Ecological network identification and connectivity robustness evaluation in the Yellow River Basin under a multi-scenario simulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    2. Haoyue Gao & Tianling Qin & Qinghua Luan & Jianming Feng & Xiuyan Zhang & Yuhui Yang & Shu Xu & Jie Lu, 2024. "Characteristics Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Evolution in the Source Region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River Based on Improved FLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Changchun Feng & Hao Zhang & Liang Xiao & Yongpei Guo, 2022. "Land Use Change and Its Driving Factors in the Rural–Urban Fringe of Beijing: A Production–Living–Ecological Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Jian Tian & Suiping Zeng & Jian Zeng & Sen Wang, 2022. "How Urban Expansion Triggers Spatio-Temporal Differentiation of Systemic Risk in Suburban Rural Areas: A Case Study of Tianjin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-25, October.
    3. Yu Chen & Xuyang Su & Xuekai Wang, 2022. "Spatial Transformation Characteristics and Conflict Measurement of Production-Living-Ecology: Evidence from Urban Agglomeration of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Guanglong Dong & Wenxin Zhang & Xinliang Xu & Kun Jia, 2021. "Multi-Dimensional Feature Recognition and Policy Implications of Rural Human–Land Relationships in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Zongfeng Chen & Xueqi Liu & Zhi Lu & Yurui Li, 2021. "The Expansion Mechanism of Rural Residential Land and Implications for Sustainable Regional Development: Evidence from the Baota District in China’s Loess Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Caiyao Xu & Chen Qian & Wencai Yang & Bowei Li & Lingqian Kong & Fanbin Kong, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Pattern of Urban-Rural Integration Development and Its Driving Mechanism Analysis in Hangzhou Bay Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-21, July.
    7. Jiwei Li & Qingqing Ye & Weiqiang Chen & Xuesong Kong & Qingsheng Bi & Jie Lu & Enxiang Cai & Hejie Wei & Xinwei Feng & Yulong Guo, 2022. "An Analysis Method of Quantitative Coupling Rationality between Urban–Rural Construction Land and Population: A Case Study of Henan Province in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Yongqiang Sun & Yan Li & Jing Gao & Yan Yan, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Land Use Structure in Small Towns in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    9. Weijia Chen & Yongquan Lu & Guilin Liu, 2022. "Balancing cropland gain and desert vegetation loss: The key to rural revitalization in Xinjiang, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 1122-1145, September.
    10. Juan Li & Xunzhou Chunyu & Feng Huang, 2022. "Land Use Pattern Changes and the Driving Forces in the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-27, December.
    11. Peng Wang & Yihui He & Kengcheng Zheng, 2023. "Effects of the Implementation of the Broadband China Policy (BCP) on House Prices: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Shuting Bai & Jiuchun Yang & Yubo Zhang & Fengqin Yan & Lingxue Yu & Shuwen Zhang, 2022. "Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, July.
    13. Zhang, Zuo & Li, Jiaming, 2022. "Spatial suitability and multi-scenarios for land use: Simulation and policy insights from the production-living-ecological perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Wancong Li & Hong Li & Shijun Wang & Zhiqiang Feng, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of County-Level Land Use Structure in the Context of Urban Shrinkage: Evidence from Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Liu, Yansui & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Territory spatial planning and national governance system in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Andrew Allan & Ali Soltani & Mohammad Hamed Abdi & Melika Zarei, 2022. "Driving Forces behind Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Systematic and Bibliometric Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    17. Yangyang Yuan & Yuchen Yang & Ruijun Wang & Yuning Cheng, 2022. "Predicting Rural Ecological Space Boundaries in the Urban Fringe Area Based on Bayesian Network: A Case Study in Nanjing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, October.
    18. Xiaoyu Liu & Liangjie Xin, 2022. "Assessment of the Efficiency of Cultivated Land Occupied by Urban and Rural Construction Land in China from 1990 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-12, June.
    19. Xinxin Fu & Xiaofeng Wang & Jitao Zhou & Jiahao Ma, 2021. "Optimizing the Production-Living-Ecological Space for Reducing the Ecosystem Services Deficit," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.
    20. Bonoua Faye & Guoming Du & Edmée Mbaye & Chang’an Liang & Tidiane Sané & Ruhao Xue, 2023. "Assessing the Spatial Agricultural Land Use Transition in Thiès Region, Senegal, and Its Potential Driving Factors," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:475:y:2023:i:c:s0304380022003027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.