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Modelling Deforestation and Land Cover Transitions of Tropical Peatlands in Sumatra, Indonesia Using Remote Sensed Land Cover Data Sets

Author

Listed:
  • Ian Elz

    (Department of Geography, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK)

  • Kevin Tansey

    (Department of Geography, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Susan E. Page

    (Department of Geography, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Mandar Trivedi

    (Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK)

Abstract

In Southeast Asia land use change associated with forest loss and degradation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is of particular concern where deforestation occurs on peat soils. A business-as-usual (BAU) land change model was developed using Dinamica EGO© for a REDD+ Demonstration Activity area in south-east Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia containing Berbak National Park (NP). The model output will be used as baseline land change predictions for comparison with alternative land cover management scenarios as part of a REDD+ feasibility study. The study area is approximately 376,000 ha with approximately 50% on peat soils. The model uses published 2000 and 2010 land cover maps as input and projects land cover change for thirty years until 2040. The model predicted that under a BAU scenario the forest area, 185,000 ha in 2010, will decline by 37% by 2040. In protected forest areas, approximately 50% of the study area, forest cover will reduce by 25%. Peat swamp forest will reduce by almost 37%. The greatest land cover category increases are plantation/regrowth areas (which includes oil palm) and open areas which each increase by 30,000 ha. These results indicate that the site has great potential as an Indonesian REDD+ Demonstration Activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Elz & Kevin Tansey & Susan E. Page & Mandar Trivedi, 2015. "Modelling Deforestation and Land Cover Transitions of Tropical Peatlands in Sumatra, Indonesia Using Remote Sensed Land Cover Data Sets," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:4:y:2015:i:3:p:670-687:d:53980
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susan E. Page & Florian Siegert & John O. Rieley & Hans-Dieter V. Boehm & Adi Jaya & Suwido Limin, 2002. "The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997," Nature, Nature, vol. 420(6911), pages 61-65, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Prashanti Sharma & Rajesh Bahadur Thapa & Mir Abdul Matin, 2020. "Examining forest cover change and deforestation drivers in Taunggyi District, Shan State, Myanmar," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5521-5538, August.
    3. Elisabeth Hettig & Jann Lay & Kacana Sipangule, 2016. "Drivers of Households’ Land-Use Decisions: A Critical Review of Micro-Level Studies in Tropical Regions," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, October.
    4. Mariane S. Reis & Maria Isabel S. Escada & Luciano V. Dutra & Sidnei J. S. Sant’Anna & Nathan D. Vogt, 2018. "Towards a Reproducible LULC Hierarchical Class Legend for Use in the Southwest of Pará State, Brazil: A Comparison with Remote Sensing Data-Driven Hierarchies," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-29, May.
    5. Zhang, Rui & Tian, Qing & Jiang, Luguang & Crooks, Andrew & Qi, Shuhua & Yang, Ruixin, 2018. "Projecting cropping patterns around Poyang lake and prioritizing areas for policy intervention to promote rice: A cellular automata model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 248-260.

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